Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYY | 6.14 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs WSH | 5.86 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BAL | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 5.52 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.49 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs CHC | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs HOU | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAA | 5.08 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs MIL | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATL | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs DET | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYM | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.46 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PIT | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CIN | 4.02 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SD | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIN | 3.77 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs KC | 3.68 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs SF | 3.52 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 3.37 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 3.29 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.