Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIN | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATL | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs DET | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs KC | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs CHC | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 4.62 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYM | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 4.58 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PIT | 4.46 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYY | 4.44 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 4.39 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 1 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAA | 4.36 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs MIL | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 4.28 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BAL | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs SF | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Brad Lord
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CIN | 3.92 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs WSH | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs HOU | 3.48 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Erik Miller
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 3.36 | 21.9% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SD | 3.06 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.