Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SD | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 5.25 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 4.95 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAA | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs CLE | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs KC | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BOS | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 4.45 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 4.43 | 23.4% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs PIT | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Sean Newcomb
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.20 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.08 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.06 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 3.90 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 3.84 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.64 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 3.40 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.