Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIN | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SD | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 5.32 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 5.00 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs KC | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.84 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PHI | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BOS | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.47 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs PIT | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 3.98 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 3.90 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 3.78 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brad Lord
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.54 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 2.98 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 13.2 | 10 | 1 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 2.58 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.