Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CLE
Score 82.0 | Lineup K 6.65
|
6.77 | 6.90 | +0.13 | 87.0% | 76.7% | 64.3% | 51.1% | 38.7% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs MIA
Score 72.8 | Lineup K 6.12
|
5.54 | 5.85 | +0.31 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs TOR
Score 73.6 | Lineup K 5.99
|
5.33 | 5.78 | +0.45 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 66.9 | Lineup K 6.18
|
5.38 | 5.74 | +0.36 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs KC
Score 57.4 | Lineup K 5.11
|
5.25 | 5.23 | -0.02 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs BAL
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 6.40
|
4.57 | 5.18 | +0.61 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BOS
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 5.39
|
5.01 | 5.14 | +0.13 | 71.5% | 55.7% | 40.4% | 27.4% | 17.5% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 32.9 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.96 | 4.91 | -0.05 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs WSH
Score 48.2 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.82 | 4.88 | +0.06 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 4.22
|
5.25 | 4.85 | -0.40 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 6.07
|
4.23 | 4.78 | +0.55 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Lucas Giolito
Probable | projected
|
SD vs ATH
Score 46.1 | Lineup K 5.57
|
4.26 | 4.70 | +0.44 | 65.6% | 48.9% | 33.7% | 21.6% | 13.0% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SD
Score 51.8 | Lineup K 5.35
|
4.14 | 4.57 | +0.43 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs PIT
Score 33.2 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.11 | 4.45 | +0.34 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs HOU
Score 36.5 | Lineup K 4.46
|
4.28 | 4.30 | +0.02 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs SEA
Score 28.3 | Lineup K 4.72
|
4.11 | 4.25 | +0.14 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYY
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs PHI
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 4.63
|
3.80 | 4.04 | +0.24 | 55.2% | 37.7% | 23.6% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATL
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.90 | 4.00 | +0.10 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 4.31
|
3.86 | 3.96 | +0.10 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CWS
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 4.44
|
3.80 | 3.95 | +0.15 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs DET
Score 25.9 | Lineup K 4.26
|
3.67 | 3.84 | +0.17 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 25.3 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.75 | 3.71 | -0.04 | 49.3% | 31.9% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs SF
Score 37.9 | Lineup K 4.50
|
3.27 | 3.59 | +0.32 | 47.0% | 29.8% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 4.97
|
2.89 | 3.20 | +0.31 | 39.3% | 23.1% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.