Mithrandir Metrics
BOS American League East Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Boston Red Sox

78.9-83.1 with P10-P90 wins 69-89. 81.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.9-83.1
Live pace
87.0
Delta
+8.1
Record 87-75 Run diff 78 Generated 2026-10-15T11:48:51.812501+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason79.0
Current pace87.0
Rolling p5084.8
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
75.7 80.0 84.8 89.6 94.0
MOVE +5.8 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.27
October path

Projection odds

Division4.1%
Playoffs28.0%
Pennant2.7%
World Series1.1%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.252
Rotation FIP4.06
Bullpen FIP4.27
Run diff-13.8
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-10-15; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-09-30.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CRutschman, Adley----
1BContreras, Willson--6.93
2BSogard, Nick----
SSStory, Trevor----
3BDurbin, Caleb--0.65
LFEaton, Nate----
CFRafaela, Ceddanne----
RFAbreu, Wilyer--3.00
DHJones, Jahmai----
Pitching staff

Rotation

Pitching staff

Bullpen

Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Casas, TristonHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
White, EliHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Crawford, KutterPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Slaten, JustinPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Kelly, ZackPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day