Mithrandir Metrics
BOS American League East Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Boston Red Sox

78.9-83.1 with P10-P90 wins 69-89. 81.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.9-83.1
Live pace
69.8
Delta
-9.1
Record 25-33 Run diff -5 Generated 2026-06-01T11:40:34.984389+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason79.0
Current pace69.8
Rolling p5074.5
Observed weight49%
Rolling wins
64.3 69.1 74.5 79.8 84.7
MOVE -4.5 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.27
October path

Projection odds

Division4.1%
Playoffs28.0%
Pennant2.7%
World Series1.1%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.252
Rotation FIP4.06
Bullpen FIP4.27
Run diff-13.8
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CNarváez, Carlos438-0.68
1BContreras, Willson5286.93
2BKiner-Falefa, Isiah511-1.54
SSMonasterio, Andruw294-0.36
3BDurbin, Caleb4850.65
LFDuran, Jarren6465.15
CFRafaela, Ceddanne568-0.82
RFAbreu, Wilyer4703.00
DHGonzalez, Romy4000.20