The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 261 qualified hitters (226+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Devers, Rafael in signal, the comp in amber.
SF · bats L · 458 PA
Ranked comps for Devers, Rafael
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Pederson, Joc TEX · L · 339 PA | 0.81 | Barrel rateWhiff rateChase rate | In-zone contact +1.2zFly-ball rate -0.9zSprint speed -0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 268 PA | 0.71 | xwOBA on contactSprint speedOppo rate | Isolated power -1.4zIn-zone contact +1.4zWalk rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Olson, Matt ATL · L · 486 PA | 0.69 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateSwing length | In-zone contact +1.8zWhiff rate -1.1zBarrel rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 439 PA | 0.68 | Walk ratexwOBA on contactMax exit velocity | Pull rate +1.7zOppo rate -1.2zSwing length +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Machado, Manny SD · R · 448 PA | 0.65 | Sweet-spot rateBarrel rateChase rate | In-zone contact +1.6zFly-ball rate -1.0zStrikeout rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Alonso, Pete BAL · R · 490 PA | 0.65 | Pull rateBarrel rateWhiff rate | In-zone contact +1.6zSweet-spot rate +0.9zxwOBA on contact +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Stewart, Sal CIN · R · 475 PA | 0.63 | Chase rateBat speedxwOBA on contact | Oppo rate +1.5zGround-ball rate +1.2zIn-zone contact +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Vientos, Mark NYM · R · 269 PA | 0.63 | Barrel rateSwing lengthSprint speed | Walk rate -1.5zChase rate +1.3zIsolated power -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 268 PA | 0.63 | Barrel rateStrikeout rateAvg exit velocity | In-zone contact +2.0zWalk rate +1.5zIsolated power -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Greene, Riley DET · L · 468 PA | 0.62 | Max exit velocityWhiff rateHard-hit rate | In-zone contact +1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.2zBat speed +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R · 302 PA | 0.62 | Bat speedWalk rateFly-ball rate | Sprint speed +1.8zIsolated power -1.2zPull rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Carpenter, Kerry DET · L · 283 PA | 0.62 | Whiff rateBat speedStrikeout rate | In-zone contact +1.3zChase rate +1.1zPull rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.