The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Devers, Rafael in signal, the comp in amber.
SF · bats L · 641 PA
Ranked comps for Devers, Rafael
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Pederson, Joc TEX · L · 449 PA | 0.84 | Hard-hit rateChase rateWalk rate | In-zone contact +0.9zSprint speed -0.8zPull rate +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Olson, Matt ATL · L · 747 PA | 0.77 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateStrikeout rate | In-zone contact +1.6zBat speed +0.8zWhiff rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 650 PA | 0.61 | xwOBA on contactMax exit velocityBarrel rate | Pull rate +1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.0zOppo rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 456 PA | 0.59 | Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocityPull rate | Isolated power -1.6zSweet-spot rate +1.5zIn-zone contact +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Jensen, Carter KC · L · 622 PA | 0.59 | Whiff rateWalk rateOppo rate | In-zone contact +1.4zSprint speed +1.3zGround-ball rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Burger, Jake TEX · R · 638 PA | 0.54 | Swing lengthBarrel rateStrikeout rate | Isolated power -1.5zFly-ball rate -1.1zBat speed +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Alonso, Pete BAL · R · 723 PA | 0.54 | Pull rateOppo rateStrikeout rate | Sweet-spot rate +2.0zIn-zone contact +1.5zxwOBA on contact +1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Lowe, Brandon PIT · L · 672 PA | 0.53 | Bat speedxwOBA on contactBarrel rate | Pull rate +2.0zOppo rate -1.3zSweet-spot rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Stowers, Kyle MIA · L · 517 PA | 0.53 | Max exit velocityAvg exit velocitySprint speed | Pull rate +1.9zSwing length -1.8zOppo rate -1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Hernández, Heriberto MIA · R · 514 PA | 0.53 | Walk rateGround-ball rateBarrel rate | Oppo rate -1.9zSprint speed +1.7zPull rate +1.6z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R · 432 PA | 0.51 | xwOBA on contactBarrel rateChase rate | Isolated power -2.1zFly-ball rate -1.5zGround-ball rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Carroll, Corbin AZ · L · 687 PA | 0.51 | Chase rateBarrel rateWalk rate | Sprint speed +2.7zPull rate +1.5zBat speed +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.