The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 258 qualified hitters (286+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Devers, Rafael in signal, the comp in amber.
SF · bats L · 590 PA
Ranked comps for Devers, Rafael
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Pederson, Joc TEX · L · 423 PA | 0.84 | Chase ratexwOBA on contactBarrel rate | In-zone contact +0.9zSprint speed -0.8zPull rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 382 PA | 0.70 | Avg exit velocitySprint speedBarrel rate | In-zone contact +1.4zSweet-spot rate +1.2zWalk rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Olson, Matt ATL · L · 615 PA | 0.67 | Avg exit velocityHard-hit rateStrikeout rate | In-zone contact +1.5zBarrel rate +1.2zxwOBA on contact +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 557 PA | 0.66 | Max exit velocityBat speedxwOBA on contact | Pull rate +1.8zOppo rate -1.0zSwing length +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 326 PA | 0.64 | Ground-ball rateSprint speedxwOBA on contact | Isolated power -1.7zIn-zone contact +1.3zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Stewart, Sal CIN · R · 620 PA | 0.63 | Chase rateWalk rateIsolated power | Oppo rate +1.6zHard-hit rate -1.3zSweet-spot rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R · 411 PA | 0.61 | Bat speedChase ratexwOBA on contact | Sprint speed +1.7zIsolated power -1.3zAvg exit velocity -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Machado, Manny SD · R · 584 PA | 0.60 | Chase rateMax exit velocityOppo rate | In-zone contact +1.6zFly-ball rate -1.5zIsolated power -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Riley, Austin ATL · R · 557 PA | 0.60 | Swing lengthBarrel rateMax exit velocity | Isolated power -1.6zSprint speed +1.4zBat speed +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Acuña Jr., Ronald ATL · R · 378 PA | 0.60 | Whiff rateSwing lengthBarrel rate | Fly-ball rate -1.7zIsolated power -1.2zWalk rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Burger, Jake TEX · R · 535 PA | 0.59 | Swing lengthBarrel rateStrikeout rate | Fly-ball rate -1.3zPull rate +1.1zBat speed +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Walker, Christian HOU · R · 556 PA | 0.58 | Max exit velocityWhiff rateSprint speed | In-zone contact +1.7zFly-ball rate -1.5zAvg exit velocity -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.