The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 260 qualified hitters (204+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Smith, Will in signal, the comp in amber.

LAD · bats R · 212 PA

Ranked comps for Smith, Will

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Stephenson, Tyler CIN · R · 278 PA 0.66 Isolated powerSweet-spot rateChase rate Whiff rate +1.6zBarrel rate -1.1zStrikeout rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Betts, Mookie LAD · R · 280 PA 0.59 Ground-ball rateFly-ball rateAvg exit velocity xwOBA on contact -1.3zStrikeout rate -1.3zOppo rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Aranda, Jonathan TB · L · 425 PA 0.57 Oppo rateBat speedxwOBA on contact Sweet-spot rate -1.4zSprint speed -1.2zIn-zone contact -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
04 McLain, Matt CIN · R · 329 PA 0.56 Oppo rateHard-hit rateMax exit velocity Whiff rate +1.4zIn-zone contact -1.3zBarrel rate -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Abreu, Wilyer BOS · L · 415 PA 0.53 Oppo rateAvg exit velocityHard-hit rate Sweet-spot rate -1.7zChase rate +1.5zIn-zone contact -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
06 McGonigle, Kevin DET · L · 435 PA 0.52 Isolated powerWhiff rateIn-zone contact Sweet-spot rate -1.7zPull rate +1.5zBarrel rate -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Rutschman, Adley BAL · L · 290 PA 0.51 Max exit velocityIn-zone contactWhiff rate Fly-ball rate -1.6zGround-ball rate +1.5zBarrel rate -1.5z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Wetherholt, JJ STL · L · 421 PA 0.46 Avg exit velocityChase rateIsolated power Ground-ball rate +1.8zPull rate +1.6zOppo rate -1.5z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Nimmo, Brandon TEX · L · 403 PA 0.43 Barrel rateMax exit velocityStrikeout rate Ground-ball rate +1.7zFly-ball rate -1.7zOppo rate -1.6z Player Projection Swing lab
10 O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L · 359 PA 0.42 Avg exit velocityBat speedIn-zone contact Ground-ball rate +1.8zChase rate +1.6zPull rate +1.5z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 211 PA 0.41 In-zone contactIsolated powerSwing length Barrel rate -1.8zFly-ball rate -1.8zSweet-spot rate -1.6z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Schmitt, Casey SF · R · 385 PA 0.41 Strikeout rateAvg exit velocityIn-zone contact Walk rate -2.5zChase rate +2.4zIsolated power +1.5z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.