Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
35
Matched
123
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-09-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 11.9
F 13.4
V 11.6
1.8pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
02
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.0pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
03
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 16.1%Fangorn 14.8%market +1.4pp
P 16.1
F 16.1
V 12.4
3.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
04
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 12.0%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.3pp
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 13.2
1.7pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
05
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 7
 9.7%Fangorn 10.4%market -0.7pp
P 11.7
F 9.7
V 7.4
4.3pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 860 avg 3 books
06
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
07
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 12.0%Fangorn 13.2%market -1.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 10.5
1.5pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
08
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 16.2
3.1pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.8pp
P 12.2
F 11.7
V 10.5
1.7pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
10
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 12.0%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.1pp
P 12.6
F 12.0
V 15.1
3.1pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
11
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.6pp
P 14.6
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
12
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.8pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
13
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 17.6
4.2pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
14
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.6pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 8.9
3.7pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
15
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
 12.0%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.5pp
P 11.9
F 12.0
V 12.2
0.3pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
16
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 12.5%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
17
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.6pp
P 11.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.0pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
18
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 12.0%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.8pp
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
3.6pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
19
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 11.3
2.1pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
20
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
21
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 12.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.5pp
P 11.6
F 12.5
V 13.5
1.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
22
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 12.0%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.9pp
P 11.2
F 12.0
V 14.4
3.2pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
23
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 12.0%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.9pp
P 11.8
F 12.0
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
24
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.6pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.5
1.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
25
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.5
2.3pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
26
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 12.0%Fangorn 18.0%market -6.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.0
V 13.4
1.4pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
27
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 15.9
2.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
28
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.3pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
29
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 10.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -8.5pp
P 8.5
F 10.7
V 12.7
4.2pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
30
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
31
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 22.7%market -9.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 12.8
1.7pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
32
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 12.0%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.5pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 14.3
2.9pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
33
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 17.3
3.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
34
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 10.7%Fangorn 26.3%market -15.6pp
P 12.3
F 10.7
V 14.6
3.9pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
35
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 29.8%market -16.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 19.8
6.4pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2396roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.