Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
35
Matched
123
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-09-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 13.2%Valinor 10.7%market +2.1pp
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 13.2
1.7pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
02
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 16.2%Valinor 14.1%market +1.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 16.2
3.1pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
03
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 13.5%market +1.1pp
P 12.6
F 12.0
V 15.1
3.1pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 11.6%Valinor 11.0%market +0.2pp
P 11.9
F 13.4
V 11.6
1.8pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 10.4%Valinor 11.2%market -1.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.0pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
06
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 15.3%market -1.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
07
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 17.6%Valinor 19.1%market -2.2pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 17.6
4.2pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
08
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 10.5%Valinor 12.7%market -2.7pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 10.5
1.5pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 10.5%Valinor 13.1%market -3.0pp
P 12.2
F 11.7
V 10.5
1.7pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 640 avg 3 books
10
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 7
 7.4%Valinor 10.0%market -3.0pp
P 11.7
F 9.7
V 7.4
4.3pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 12.4%Valinor 15.0%market -3.1pp
P 16.1
F 16.1
V 12.4
3.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
12
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 10.4%Valinor 13.6%market -3.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
13
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 13.6%Valinor 17.2%market -4.3pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.8pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
14
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 19.8%Valinor 29.3%market -10.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 19.8
6.4pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
15
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 25.8%market -12.1pp
P 12.3
F 10.7
V 14.6
3.9pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
16
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 14.5%market -2.0pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
17
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 14.3%market -2.1pp
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
3.6pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
18
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
 12.2%Valinor 14.0%market -2.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.0
V 12.2
0.3pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
19
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 8.9%Valinor 11.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 8.9
3.7pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
20
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 15.5%market -2.5pp
P 11.6
F 12.5
V 13.5
1.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
21
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 14.4%Valinor 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 11.2
F 12.0
V 14.4
3.2pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
22
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 15.6%market -2.7pp
P 11.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.0pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
23
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 13.5%Valinor 16.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
24
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 15.9%Valinor 18.8%market -3.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 15.9
2.8pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
25
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.0
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
26
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 14.5%Valinor 17.7%market -3.9pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.5
1.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
27
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 13.4%Valinor 17.5%market -4.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.0
V 13.4
1.4pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
28
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 11.3%Valinor 15.7%market -4.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 11.3
2.1pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
29
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 15.3%Valinor 20.3%market -5.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.3pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
30
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 18.8%market -6.7pp
P 8.5
F 10.7
V 12.7
4.2pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
31
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 21.2%market -7.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
32
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
 11.5%Valinor 18.9%market -8.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.5
2.3pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
33
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 22.0%market -8.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 14.3
2.9pp 0.879xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 3
 17.3%Valinor 26.5%market -10.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 17.3
3.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
35
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 22.2%market -10.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 12.8
1.7pp 1.133xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2396roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.