Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-23 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-07-23

0 activated plays

Gap rows 87

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-07-24 Older: 2026-07-22

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-22 2026-07-21 2026-07-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Nick Castellanos

Strong

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale

Value Score 39.1

Odds / Gap +555 / +7.32%

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.214x

Value Rank #2

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Play

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale

Value Score 35.9

Odds / Gap +465 / +4.85%

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.214x

Value Rank #3

Manny Machado

Lean

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale

Value Score 35.9

Odds / Gap +415 / +3.41%

1+ HR 22.8%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.214x

Value Rank #4

Jackson Merrill

Play

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale

Value Score 22.2

Odds / Gap +560 / +4.91%

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.214x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Nick Castellanos

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +7.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+7.32%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

+7.21%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+7.21%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.12%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+6.12%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+6.00%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+6.00%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.11%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+5.11%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.03%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Miguel Andujar

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +965 / U -1600

+5.11%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +950 / U --

+4.98%

9.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +945 / U -1690

+4.93%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.3

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+5.11%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+4.99%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+4.99%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jackson Merrill

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.91%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -800

+4.91%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+4.79%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+4.79%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -630

+4.85%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

+4.69%

17.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -590

+4.53%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alec Burleson

STL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.78%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+4.78%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+4.78%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+4.78%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.61%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+4.61%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+4.61%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+4.61%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ramón Laureano

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.50%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+4.50%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

+4.39%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+4.39%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.28%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+4.28%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+4.28%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+4.28%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Steven Kwan

CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +4.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

+4.23%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+4.07%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

+4.02%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.7

Josh Bell

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.63%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+3.63%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+3.51%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+3.51%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Santana

AZ vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +610 / U -890

+3.60%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +605 / U -840

+3.50%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+3.50%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +3.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+3.52%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1085

+3.52%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+3.44%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Manny Machado

SD vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.41%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+3.41%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

+3.22%

19.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -515

+3.03%

19.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +935 / U -1520

+3.13%

9.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +920 / U --

+2.99%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +915 / U -1605

+2.94%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.1

Iván Herrera

STL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.75%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+2.75%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+2.75%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+2.75%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.78%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.78%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.79%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-5.07%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

José Ramírez

CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.74%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -520

+1.74%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

+1.53%

20.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +385 / U -485

+1.32%

19.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

+1.26%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+1.09%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+0.92%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Victor Scott II

STL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.94%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.94%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.94%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.94%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.8

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.84%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.84%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.34%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.34%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

+0.72%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.57%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -610

+0.41%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+0.45%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.58%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-3.80%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

-0.07%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

-0.19%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

-0.19%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2

Royce Lewis

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-0.36%

15.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-0.49%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-0.49%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ketel Marte

AZ vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.88%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-0.88%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-1.77%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-2.47%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Matt Wallner

MIN vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -500

-1.05%

19.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +405 / U -535

-1.97%

19.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.28%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 421

Latest Date 2026-07-27

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-07-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	34 / 57 / 24 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	42 / 82 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 54.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 0 unmatched	19 / 67 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 44.4	-- Signals --
2026-07-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	5 / 61 / 72 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 36.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	87 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 25 / 26 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Nick Castellanos \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 24 unmatched	15 / 61 / 60 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 45.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	231 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 50 / 42 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Andrew Benintendi \| 43.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-20 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	345 matched 0 unmatched	46 / 64 / 80 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 46.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%