Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-24 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-07-24

0 activated plays

Gap rows 291

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-07-25 Older: 2026-07-23

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21 2026-07-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Brandon Nimmo

Play

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller

Value Score 36.1

Odds / Gap +515 / +6.04%

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Value Rank #2

Christian Yelich

Play

MIL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 34.6

Odds / Gap +485 / +5.14%

1+ HR 22.2%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.020x

Value Rank #3

Julio Rodríguez

Lean

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore

Value Score 33.9

Odds / Gap +440 / +3.90%

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Value Rank #4

Wyatt Langford

Play

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller

Value Score 31.6

Odds / Gap +570 / +6.40%

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Value Rank #5

Andrew Benintendi

Play

CWS vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti

Value Score 29.1

Odds / Gap +640 / +6.57%

1+ HR 20.1%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.041x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Brice Turang

MIL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+7.93%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+7.82%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+7.76%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2

Aaron Judge

NYY vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +7.77%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +215 / U -255

+7.77%

30.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +230 / U -280

+5.92%

29.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +220 / U --

-10.85%

31.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.20%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +240 / U -285

+7.20%

28.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +250 / U -310

+5.62%

27.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +245 / U --

-10.22%

29.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +6.99%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+6.99%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+6.99%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+6.99%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +6.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+6.57%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+6.57%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+6.57%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wyatt Langford

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.40%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+6.40%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+6.29%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+6.29%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Adley Rutschman

BAL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

+6.32%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +710 / U -1095

+6.32%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

+6.25%

12.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Evan Carter

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1175

+6.11%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1245

+6.04%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+6.04%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +6.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -715

+6.04%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+5.91%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +505 / U -670

+5.77%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.00%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +855 / U -1340

+6.00%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1415

+5.89%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +845 / U --

+5.89%

10.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brendan Donovan

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.99%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +955 / U -1570

+5.99%

9.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +935 / U --

+5.81%

9.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +930 / U -1655

+5.76%

9.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jeremy Peña

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +765 / U -1145

+5.88%

11.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +760 / U -1215

+5.81%

11.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +760 / U --

+5.81%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Cronenworth

SD vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.80%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +905 / U -1450

+5.80%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +890 / U -1535

+5.65%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+5.65%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Correa

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.56%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1155

+5.56%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+5.49%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+5.49%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Rob Refsnyder

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.55%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

+5.55%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +690 / U -1060

+5.47%

12.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

+5.47%

12.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Randy Arozarena

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.46%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+5.46%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+5.35%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+5.35%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tj Friedl

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.44%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+5.44%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.36%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1

Cj Abrams

WSH vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.37%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -915

+5.37%

13.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+5.27%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+5.27%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+5.14%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+4.99%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+4.99%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ryan Jeffers

MIN vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.10%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+5.10%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+5.10%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +675 / U --

+5.10%

12.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.92%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+4.92%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+3.58%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-8.14%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.92%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+4.92%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+4.80%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+4.80%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.67%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +900 / U -1440

+4.67%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+4.57%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +885 / U -1525

+4.52%

9.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+4.57%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

+4.46%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+4.46%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jackson Merrill

SD vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.48%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+4.48%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+4.35%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+4.35%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.39%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

+4.39%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

+4.27%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

+4.27%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Lawrence Butler

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.38%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +545 / U -775

+4.38%

14.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+4.26%

15.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

+4.26%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.35%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+4.35%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+4.26%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+4.26%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +4.16%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+4.16%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+4.03%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+3.91%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Joc Pederson

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -830

+4.09%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -780

+3.99%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+3.99%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+4.01%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+3.90%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+3.90%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.95%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+3.95%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+3.83%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+3.83%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Marsh

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1170

+3.94%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +770 / U -1240

+3.81%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +770 / U --

+3.81%

11.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Julio Rodríguez

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+3.90%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+3.73%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+3.55%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+3.90%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+3.79%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+3.79%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jacob Wilson

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1005 / U -1700

+3.73%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +985 / U --

+3.56%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +980 / U -1795

+3.52%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+3.25%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+3.25%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+3.16%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jj Bleday

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +650 / U -970

+3.23%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +645 / U -910

+3.14%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +645 / U --

+3.14%

13.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Steer

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+3.15%

13.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+3.15%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +595 / U --

+3.05%

14.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Naylor

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+3.14%

15.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -690

+3.01%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+3.01%

16.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Trea Turner

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -835

+3.14%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -785

+3.04%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+3.04%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.13%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 16.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +335 / U -415

+3.13%

22.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +345 / U -445

+2.06%

21.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +340 / U --

-6.44%

22.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.06%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 11.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+3.06%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+3.06%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+3.06%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7

Mookie Betts

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.96%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+2.96%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+2.82%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+2.68%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler Stephenson

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.96%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+2.96%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+2.88%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+2.88%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Kurtz

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.89%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+2.89%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+1.55%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-6.11%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.86%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +320 / U -390

+2.86%

23.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +330 / U -420

+1.68%

22.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +325 / U --

-5.98%

23.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jose Altuve

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.83%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+2.83%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+2.70%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+2.58%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.9

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.79%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -720

+2.79%

15.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +510 / U -675

+2.66%

15.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+2.66%

16.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1405

+2.48%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1485

+2.32%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+2.32%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.44%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -670

+2.44%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+2.29%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+2.29%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alec Bohm

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +805 / U -1225

+2.40%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +795 / U -1295

+2.28%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +795 / U --

+2.28%

11.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Gunnar Henderson

BAL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -610

+2.37%

17.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

+2.04%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+2.04%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jo Adell

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +405 / U -515

+2.37%

19.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+1.49%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

-5.72%

19.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Andy Pages

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +2.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+2.31%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+2.31%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+2.31%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2

José Caballero

NYY vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1130 / U -2055

+2.01%

7.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1100 / U --

+1.81%

8.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1090 / U -2165

+1.74%

8.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4

Lane Thomas

KC vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.96%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -865

+1.96%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -920

+1.96%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+1.86%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +785 / U -1180

+1.79%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1250

+1.66%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+1.66%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.7

Cal Raleigh

SEA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +285 / U -345

+1.72%

25.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +295 / U -370

+0.53%

24.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +290 / U --

-4.89%

25.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+1.68%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+0.55%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-4.94%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Isaac Paredes

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.58%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

+1.58%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -700

+1.45%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+1.45%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+1.35%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+1.21%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+1.07%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

+1.21%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+1.07%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+0.93%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.17%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+1.17%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+1.03%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -635

+0.89%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Manny Machado

SD vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +435 / U -580

+1.14%

18.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

+0.96%

18.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +425 / U -545

+0.78%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.00%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -610

+1.00%

17.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

+0.67%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+0.67%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Pete Alonso

BAL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.89%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +330 / U -410

+0.89%

22.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +345 / U -440

-0.20%

21.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +335 / U --

-4.27%

23.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mike Trout

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.85%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -530

+0.85%

18.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +425 / U -570

-0.09%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-4.21%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Christian Walker

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+0.68%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+0.52%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+0.35%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -975

+0.68%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +650 / U -920

+0.60%

12.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+0.60%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.48%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.48%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.48%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3

Nolan Schanuel

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +0.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1035 / U -1785

+0.43%

8.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1015 / U --

+0.27%

9.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1005 / U -1885

+0.19%

8.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.5

Corey Seager

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -450

+0.36%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +345 / U --

+0.11%

22.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +340 / U -420

-0.15%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -575

+0.31%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+0.13%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -540

-0.05%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Taylor Ward

BAL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

+0.29%

17.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

+0.13%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+0.13%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+0.19%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.68%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-3.48%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brent Rooker

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -480

+0.05%

20.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

-0.18%

21.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +360 / U -450

-0.41%

21.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryce Harper

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.02%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+0.02%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

-0.17%

19.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -515

-0.36%

19.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Eugenio Suárez

CIN vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +355 / U -445

-0.01%

21.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -475

-0.97%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-3.38%

21.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-0.12%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-0.27%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.43%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Adolis García

PHI vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-0.24%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-0.56%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-0.56%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

-0.27%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

-0.44%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-0.44%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.46%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -690

-0.46%

16.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +495 / U --

-0.60%

16.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -645

-0.74%

16.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Burger

TEX vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -570

-0.55%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-0.73%

19.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-0.92%

18.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.56%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.56%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.06%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.94%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.2

Jorge Soler

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.93%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -620

-0.93%

16.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +485 / U -660

-1.66%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

-2.42%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.97%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

-0.97%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-1.96%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-2.32%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Logan O'Hoppe

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.98%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -695

-0.98%

15.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +530 / U -745

-1.73%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

-2.44%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.00%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -505

-1.00%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-1.21%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-1.43%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Salvador Perez

KC vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

-1.03%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

-1.20%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

-1.38%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Zach Neto

LAA vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.16%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -670

-1.16%

16.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +485 / U --

-1.30%

17.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -630

-1.45%

16.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Shea Langeliers

ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -505

-1.21%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-1.63%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-1.66%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.25%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

-1.25%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-1.80%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-2.04%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.33%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.33%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.33%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-1.40%

19.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-1.68%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.07%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.46%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -590

-1.46%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -630

-1.75%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

-1.91%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler O'Neill

BAL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.57%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-1.57%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.64%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-1.95%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 421

Latest Date 2026-07-27

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-07-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	34 / 57 / 24 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	42 / 82 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 54.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 0 unmatched	19 / 67 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 44.4	-- Signals --
2026-07-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	5 / 61 / 72 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 36.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	87 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 25 / 26 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Nick Castellanos \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 24 unmatched	15 / 61 / 60 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 45.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	231 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 50 / 42 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Andrew Benintendi \| 43.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-20 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	345 matched 0 unmatched	46 / 64 / 80 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 46.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%