The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 259 qualified hitters (288+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Duran, Jarren in signal, the comp in amber.

BOS · bats L · 562 PA

Ranked comps for Duran, Jarren

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 539 PA 0.77 xwOBA on contactOppo ratePull rate Sprint speed -1.3zFly-ball rate +0.9zSweet-spot rate -0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Crews, Dylan WSH · R · 362 PA 0.77 Walk rateSwing lengthWhiff rate Fly-ball rate +1.2zPull rate -1.1zMax exit velocity -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Smith, Cam HOU · R · 497 PA 0.76 Max exit velocityGround-ball rateAvg exit velocity Oppo rate +1.2zPull rate -1.1zBat speed +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R · 566 PA 0.75 Max exit velocityBarrel rateIsolated power Pull rate -1.2zGround-ball rate -0.8zOppo rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Castro, Willi COL · L · 498 PA 0.72 Strikeout rateIsolated powerxwOBA on contact Fly-ball rate +1.6zGround-ball rate -1.2zAvg exit velocity -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Adell, Jo LAA · R · 574 PA 0.70 Barrel rateIn-zone contactMax exit velocity Oppo rate +1.2zPull rate -1.1zGround-ball rate -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Peña, Jeremy HOU · R · 382 PA 0.67 Oppo rateGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact Max exit velocity -1.7zStrikeout rate -0.9zIsolated power +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Young, Jared NYM · L · 303 PA 0.67 Avg exit velocityIn-zone contactGround-ball rate Strikeout rate -1.3zWhiff rate -1.3zSprint speed -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Henderson, Gunnar BAL · L · 631 PA 0.67 Ground-ball rateSweet-spot rateBat speed Whiff rate -1.5zMax exit velocity -1.0zStrikeout rate -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Baty, Brett NYM · L · 430 PA 0.66 Strikeout rateBat speedBarrel rate Sprint speed -1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.2zIsolated power -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
11 House, Brady WSH · R · 303 PA 0.65 Isolated powerSwing lengthBarrel rate Pull rate -1.8zOppo rate +1.3zHard-hit rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Lewis, Royce MIN · R · 442 PA 0.62 Isolated powerAvg exit velocityBat speed Ground-ball rate -2.1zSwing length +1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.