Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs PIT | 6.37 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs NYY | 5.91 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs TOR | 5.78 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs PHI | 5.70 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SD | 5.62 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs DET | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.37 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BOS | 4.80 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SF | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs LAD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Richard Lovelady
Probable starter
|
WSH vs BAL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 4.38 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs MIL | 4.34 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIA | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Elmer Rodríguez
Probable starter
|
NYY vs NYM | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TB | 4.27 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.27 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CWS | 3.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
SD vs SEA | 3.87 | 20.2% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs STL | 3.72 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CHC | 3.65 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATL | 3.53 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATH | 3.42 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs LAA | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIN | 3.39 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs WSH | 3.28 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs KC | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.