Mithrandir Metrics
BAL American League East Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Baltimore Orioles

85.3-76.7 with P10-P90 wins 75-95. 80.9 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.3-76.7
Live pace
78.7
Delta
-6.5
Record 69-73 Run diff -22 Generated 2026-09-05T11:48:43.555975+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace78.7
Rolling p5080.6
Observed weight70%
Rolling wins
71.5 75.8 80.6 85.3 89.6
MOVE -4.4 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.31
October path

Projection odds

Division17.3%
Playoffs60.2%
Pennant8.9%
World Series4.4%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.272
Rotation FIP4.32
Bullpen FIP4.31
Run diff42.8
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-09-05; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-09-04.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CNarváez, Carlos438-0.58
1BAlonso, Pete64810.19
2BHolliday, Jackson5571.26
SSHenderson, Gunnar6009.83
3BEncarnacion-Strand, Christian2950.24
LFTaveras, Leody354-0.55
CFRobert Jr., Luis472-0.14
RFAlexander, Blaze354-0.68
DHMayo, Coby358-0.72
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Mountcastle, RyanHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Westburg, JordanHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
O'Neill, TylerHitterIL-10Injured 10-Day
Akin, KeeganPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Helsley, RyanPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Bautista, FélixPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Selby, ColinPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Hinds, ReceHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Jackson, JeremiahHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Hiraldo, YaramilPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Foster, CameronPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Zulueta, YosverPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors