The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, William in signal, the comp in amber.

MIL · bats R · 688 PA

Ranked comps for Contreras, William

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Jeffers, Ryan MIN · R · 388 PA 0.78 Swing lengthBarrel rateBat speed Pull rate +1.0zAvg exit velocity -0.9zWalk rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Springer, George TOR · R · 536 PA 0.75 Fly-ball rateWalk rateIsolated power Pull rate +1.1zOppo rate -0.8zHard-hit rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Machado, Manny SD · R · 713 PA 0.73 Ground-ball rateBarrel rateHard-hit rate Swing length +1.5zStrikeout rate +1.0zPull rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Herrera, Iván STL · R · 725 PA 0.70 In-zone contactChase rateSprint speed Ground-ball rate +1.3zFly-ball rate -1.2zBarrel rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Bell, Josh MIN · L · 650 PA 0.70 Sprint speedFly-ball rateBarrel rate Swing length +1.6zPull rate +1.5zStrikeout rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L · 478 PA 0.69 Oppo rateMax exit velocityGround-ball rate Sweet-spot rate +1.8zStrikeout rate +1.3zPull rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Walker, Christian HOU · R · 657 PA 0.68 Sprint speedxwOBA on contactMax exit velocity Strikeout rate +1.5zWhiff rate +1.4zPull rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R · 363 PA 0.67 Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocitySprint speed Oppo rate +1.4zBarrel rate -1.4zBat speed -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Soderstrom, Tyler ATH · L · 466 PA 0.67 Avg exit velocityxwOBA on contactHard-hit rate Isolated power +1.4zPull rate +1.3zGround-ball rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 442 PA 0.67 Whiff rateBat speedOppo rate Pull rate +1.1zSwing length +1.1zAvg exit velocity -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Baldwin, Drake ATL · L · 666 PA 0.67 Max exit velocitySprint speedPull rate Sweet-spot rate +1.3zxwOBA on contact +1.3zStrikeout rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Pages, Andy LAD · R · 625 PA 0.66 Fly-ball ratePull rateWhiff rate Sprint speed +1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.1zSwing length +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.