The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 259 qualified hitters (290+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Bailey, Patrick in signal, the comp in amber.
CLE · bats L · 302 PA
Ranked comps for Bailey, Patrick
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Ballesteros, Moisés CHC · L · 296 PA | 0.82 | Whiff rateBat speedWalk rate | Barrel rate +0.9zMax exit velocity +0.8zChase rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 339 PA | 0.74 | Oppo rateBarrel rateAvg exit velocity | Strikeout rate -1.2zxwOBA on contact -1.0zFly-ball rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 376 PA | 0.72 | Swing lengthFly-ball rateChase rate | Sprint speed +1.2zIn-zone contact +1.1zStrikeout rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L · 419 PA | 0.71 | xwOBA on contactSwing lengthPull rate | Sprint speed +1.2zIsolated power +1.1zSweet-spot rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 362 PA | 0.70 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocityIsolated power | Sweet-spot rate +1.5zIn-zone contact +1.1zChase rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 408 PA | 0.69 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateChase rate | Sprint speed +2.2zMax exit velocity +0.7zOppo rate -0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Tawa, Tim AZ · R · 292 PA | 0.69 | In-zone contactWhiff ratexwOBA on contact | Sprint speed +1.8zOppo rate -1.6zBarrel rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Walker, Christian HOU · R · 564 PA | 0.68 | In-zone contactPull rateStrikeout rate | Isolated power +1.7zMax exit velocity +1.2zSweet-spot rate -0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 331 PA | 0.67 | Swing lengthSweet-spot rateChase rate | Fly-ball rate +1.3zMax exit velocity +1.1zHard-hit rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Heim, Jonah ATH · L · 339 PA | 0.66 | Pull rateBarrel rateMax exit velocity | Oppo rate -1.4zHard-hit rate -1.1zStrikeout rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Machado, Manny SD · R · 593 PA | 0.65 | In-zone contactSweet-spot rateChase rate | Swing length +1.6zIsolated power +1.2zMax exit velocity +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Butler, Lawrence ATH · L · 455 PA | 0.64 | Sweet-spot rateWhiff ratePull rate | Max exit velocity +1.3zWalk rate +1.2zSprint speed +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.