The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 258 qualified hitters (286+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. McMahon, Ryan in signal, the comp in amber.

NYY · bats L · 326 PA

Ranked comps for McMahon, Ryan

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Riley, Austin ATL · R · 557 PA 0.80 Max exit velocitySweet-spot rateOppo rate Sprint speed +1.4zBat speed +0.7zGround-ball rate -0.7z
02 Baty, Brett NYM · L · 430 PA 0.77 Chase rateBarrel rateOppo rate Sweet-spot rate +0.9zFly-ball rate -0.9zHard-hit rate -0.9z
03 Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R · 364 PA 0.72 Pull rateSweet-spot rateSwing length Oppo rate -1.3zBarrel rate +1.0zWalk rate +1.0z
04 Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 382 PA 0.69 Fly-ball rateBat speedSprint speed Walk rate +1.9zIsolated power +0.8zxwOBA on contact +0.7z
05 Sánchez, Jesús TOR · L · 305 PA 0.68 Max exit velocityAvg exit velocityxwOBA on contact Strikeout rate -1.2zChase rate +1.2zSwing length -1.1z
06 Walker, Christian HOU · R · 556 PA 0.68 Sprint speedBat speedWalk rate Isolated power +1.2zStrikeout rate -1.1zHard-hit rate -1.0z
07 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 535 PA 0.67 Walk ratePull rateHard-hit rate Chase rate +1.1zSweet-spot rate -1.1zSprint speed +1.0z
08 Wells, Austin NYY · L · 335 PA 0.67 Chase rateSweet-spot rateIn-zone contact Oppo rate -1.1zWalk rate +1.1zAvg exit velocity -1.0z
09 Greene, Riley DET · L · 515 PA 0.66 Hard-hit rateIn-zone contactSwing length Walk rate +1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.4zxwOBA on contact +1.0z
10 Jensen, Carter KC · L · 531 PA 0.65 Bat speedAvg exit velocityBarrel rate Sprint speed +1.4zWalk rate +1.4zFly-ball rate +1.0z
11 Machado, Manny SD · R · 584 PA 0.64 Max exit velocityChase rateBarrel rate Swing length +1.4zStrikeout rate -1.4zWalk rate +1.4z
12 Devers, Rafael SF · L · 590 PA 0.64 Ground-ball rateSprint speedxwOBA on contact Isolated power +1.7zIn-zone contact -1.3zPull rate -0.9z

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.