Mithrandir Metrics
CHC National League Central Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Chicago Cubs

85.5-76.5 with P10-P90 wins 76-95. 80.2 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.5-76.5
Live pace
86.4
Delta
+0.9
Record 32-28 Run diff 19 Generated 2026-06-01T11:40:34.984389+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace86.4
Rolling p5085.7
Observed weight50%
Rolling wins
74.8 80.0 85.7 91.4 96.6
MOVE +0.7 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.34
October path

Projection odds

Division44.4%
Playoffs60.8%
Pennant9.2%
World Series4.4%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.270
Rotation FIP4.40
Bullpen FIP4.34
Run diff35.5
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CKelly, Carson462-0.86
1BBusch, Michael5747.15
2BHoerner, Nico6120.21
SSSwanson, Dansby6023.31
3BBregman, Alex5332.56
LFHapp, Ian6205.65
CFCrow-Armstrong, Pete5842.14
RFSuzuki, Seiya6056.54
DHConforto, Michael4992.37