Mithrandir Metrics
CHC National League Central Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Chicago Cubs

85.5-76.5 with P10-P90 wins 76-95. 80.2 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.5-76.5
Live pace
90.2
Delta
+4.7
Record 54-43 Run diff 49 Generated 2026-07-18T11:43:40.779297+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace90.2
Rolling p5088.2
Observed weight62%
Rolling wins
77.8 82.7 88.2 93.7 98.6
MOVE +3.2 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.34
October path

Projection odds

Division44.4%
Playoffs60.8%
Pennant9.2%
World Series4.4%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.270
Rotation FIP4.40
Bullpen FIP4.34
Run diff35.5
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CKelly, Carson462-0.86
1BBusch, Michael5747.15
2BHoerner, Nico6120.21
SSSwanson, Dansby6023.31
3BBregman, Alex5332.56
LFHapp, Ian6205.65
CFCrow-Armstrong, Pete5842.14
RFSuzuki, Seiya6056.54
DHConforto, Michael4992.37