Mithrandir Metrics
SEA American League West Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League West

Seattle Mariners

85.4-76.6 with P10-P90 wins 76-95. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.4-76.6
Live pace
75.7
Delta
-9.7
Record 64-73 Run diff -72 Generated 2026-08-31T11:46:09.602503+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace75.7
Rolling p5078.5
Observed weight70%
Rolling wins
69.6 73.8 78.5 83.2 87.4
MOVE -6.5 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.30
October path

Projection odds

Division35.0%
Playoffs58.8%
Pennant10.0%
World Series4.7%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.269
Rotation FIP4.25
Bullpen FIP4.30
Run diff41.6
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-08-31; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-08-31.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CRaleigh, Cal6587.45
1BNaylor, Josh6102.12
2BYoung, Cole330-0.20
SSCrawford, J.p.6103.31
3BWilson, Weston274-0.55
LFArozarena, Randy6654.82
CFRodríguez, Julio6557.21
RFWard, Taylor6150.68
DHCanzone, Dominic3791.55
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Donovan, BrendanHitterIL-10Injured 7-Day
Raley, LukeHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Player 806068HitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Brash, MattPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Wilcox, ColePitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
MacIver, WillieHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Bliss, RyanHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Simpson, JoshPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Taylor, TroyPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors