Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-01 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-01
0 activated plays
Gap rows 153
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-02 Older: 2026-05-31

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 27.6
Odds / Gap +590 / +6.04%
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.007x

Value Rank #2

Corbin Carroll

Lean

AZ vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan

Value Score 23.7
Odds / Gap +450 / +2.72%
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #3

Mookie Betts

Lean

LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez

Value Score 20.2
Odds / Gap +505 / +3.51%
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #4

Zach Neto

Lean

LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland

Value Score 19.4
Odds / Gap +470 / +2.57%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.972x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +240 / U -285
+6.72%
28.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +250 / U -310
+5.14%
27.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +245 / U --
-9.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.04%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.93%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.81%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.74%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+5.67%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.67%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.48%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.48%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+5.38%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+5.24%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+5.19%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+5.12%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+5.12%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.12%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.92%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.81%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+4.76%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.72%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.62%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.16%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.09%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.09%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.01%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.01%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.6
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.01%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.90%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.90%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+3.84%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+3.78%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+3.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.64%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+3.53%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+3.53%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.63%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.50%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.36%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.56%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.48%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+3.54%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.45%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.45%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+3.51%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+3.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+3.23%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+3.35%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+3.22%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.11%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.11%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.11%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.92%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.92%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+2.73%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+2.57%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+2.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.72%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+2.38%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.57%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.25%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+2.51%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+2.51%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+2.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+2.44%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+2.44%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+2.36%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.43%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.43%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+2.41%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+1.28%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-5.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+2.22%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+2.11%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+2.05%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.21%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.10%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.05%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.75%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.03%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+1.93%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+1.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.82%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.82%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.78%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.78%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.35%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.19%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.02%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.26%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.01%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.31%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+1.19%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.91%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+1.17%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.02%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.02%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.02%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+0.83%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.55%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
+0.77%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.59%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -540
+0.41%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.63%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.13%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.55%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.36%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.17%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.32%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.49%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-3.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.20%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.03%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.03%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.26%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-0.45%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.65%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.41%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.7
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.59%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.64%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.65%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.59%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.53%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.77%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.92%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.37%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-1.11%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.91%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%