Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-18 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-18
0 activated plays
Gap rows 195
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-19 Older: 2026-06-17

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Trea Turner

Strong

PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea

Value Score 52.3
Odds / Gap +555 / +9.24%
1+ HR 24.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.177x

Value Rank #2

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 51.8
Odds / Gap +725 / +10.25%
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.177x

Value Rank #3

Alec Bohm

Strong

PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea

Value Score 48.6
Odds / Gap +775 / +9.97%
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.177x

Value Rank #4

Francisco Lindor

Play

NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 45.2
Odds / Gap +420 / +4.93%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.177x

Value Rank #5

Brandon Nimmo

Strong

TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan

Value Score 45.1
Odds / Gap +515 / +7.36%
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.160x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +10.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+10.25%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+10.17%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+10.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+9.97%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+9.84%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+9.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+9.24%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+9.13%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+9.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+8.74%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+8.74%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+8.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+8.30%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+8.21%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+8.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+7.89%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+7.78%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+7.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+7.84%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+7.76%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+7.39%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+7.32%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+7.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+7.36%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+7.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+7.09%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.39%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.27%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +730 / U -1075
+6.26%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1140
+6.26%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +725 / U --
+6.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+6.12%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+5.96%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+5.80%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+6.00%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+6.00%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+5.97%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+5.81%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+5.97%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+5.83%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+5.78%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+5.96%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+5.84%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+5.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+5.76%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+5.68%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+5.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+5.46%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+5.46%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+5.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+5.46%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+5.36%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+5.09%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+4.81%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+4.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+5.08%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+5.08%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+5.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+4.93%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+4.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+4.55%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.78%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+4.78%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+3.50%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-7.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+4.54%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+4.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+4.19%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.51%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.51%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.37%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.37%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.9
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+4.18%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+4.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+3.90%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+4.12%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+4.00%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+4.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.9
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.97%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.88%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+3.93%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+3.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+3.57%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -865
+3.80%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -920
+3.80%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+3.79%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+3.63%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+3.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 23.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+3.74%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+2.03%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-6.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+3.71%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+3.71%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+3.64%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+3.60%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+3.47%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+3.31%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+2.95%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+2.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.31%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.22%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+3.00%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+2.67%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.77%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.63%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.63%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+2.61%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+2.28%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.28%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.19%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.88%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.88%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.01%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+1.88%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+1.88%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+1.88%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+1.78%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+1.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+1.72%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
+0.63%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-5.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.32%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.07%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.81%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+1.25%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
-0.23%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-4.23%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+1.24%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+1.10%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+0.96%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.22%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.07%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.91%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+1.12%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.79%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+1.01%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.87%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.88%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
+0.59%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.30%
23.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.87%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.70%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.52%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.85%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.67%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.48%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+0.80%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.67%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.54%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.68%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.68%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.68%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.4
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+0.49%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.35%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.34%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.06%
19.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
+0.22%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
+0.02%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.19%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.03%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.13%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.29%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.57%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.33%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-2.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.78%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.94%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
-0.89%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
-1.90%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-2.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.99%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.65%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-1.18%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-1.55%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.24%
20.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.69%
21.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%