The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (292+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Chapman, Matt in signal, the comp in amber.
SF · bats R · 364 PA
Ranked comps for Chapman, Matt
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Herrera, Iván STL · R · 630 PA | 0.73 | Walk ratePull rateWhiff rate | Sprint speed -1.5zBat speed -1.0zSwing length +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 431 PA | 0.69 | Avg exit velocityBarrel rateFly-ball rate | Sprint speed -1.1zIn-zone contact +1.0zSweet-spot rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Springer, George TOR · R · 467 PA | 0.68 | Pull rateGround-ball rateWhiff rate | Oppo rate -1.4zBat speed -1.3zSweet-spot rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Ortiz, Joey MIL · R · 374 PA | 0.66 | xwOBA on contactHard-hit rateSwing length | Pull rate -1.4zGround-ball rate +1.2zIn-zone contact +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Taveras, Leody BAL · L · 449 PA | 0.66 | Ground-ball ratexwOBA on contactMax exit velocity | Bat speed -1.9zAvg exit velocity -1.4zChase rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Bogaerts, Xander SD · R · 543 PA | 0.65 | In-zone contactSwing lengthSweet-spot rate | Bat speed -1.4zOppo rate -1.3zGround-ball rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 411 PA | 0.65 | In-zone contactSprint speedGround-ball rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.9zxwOBA on contact +1.0zWalk rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Collins, Isaac KC · L · 468 PA | 0.63 | Strikeout ratePull ratexwOBA on contact | Swing length -1.6zBat speed -1.4zIn-zone contact +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Henderson, Gunnar BAL · L · 640 PA | 0.63 | Swing lengthWhiff rateBarrel rate | Oppo rate -1.8zSweet-spot rate +1.3zPull rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Walker, Christian HOU · R · 566 PA | 0.61 | Pull rateGround-ball rateMax exit velocity | Sprint speed -1.7zIsolated power +1.1zWhiff rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Bazzana, Travis CLE · L · 449 PA | 0.61 | Chase rateHard-hit ratexwOBA on contact | Bat speed -2.5zFly-ball rate +1.1zOppo rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Yelich, Christian MIL · L · 449 PA | 0.59 | Isolated powerAvg exit velocityPull rate | Ground-ball rate +1.8zxwOBA on contact +1.4zWhiff rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.