The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Chapman, Matt in signal, the comp in amber.

SF · bats R · 364 PA

Ranked comps for Chapman, Matt

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Herrera, Iván STL · R · 725 PA 0.72 Walk rateIsolated powerBarrel rate Sprint speed -1.5zBat speed -1.0zSweet-spot rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Bogaerts, Xander SD · R · 646 PA 0.68 Whiff rateSweet-spot rateSwing length Bat speed -1.4zOppo rate -1.1zGround-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Springer, George TOR · R · 536 PA 0.67 Ground-ball ratePull rateWhiff rate Oppo rate -1.5zBat speed -1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 442 PA 0.66 Pull rateGround-ball rateAvg exit velocity Isolated power +1.2zSprint speed -1.1zIn-zone contact +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Ortiz, Joey MIL · R · 453 PA 0.65 Hard-hit rateSwing lengthOppo rate Pull rate -1.4zChase rate +1.1zIn-zone contact +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 532 PA 0.63 xwOBA on contactOppo rateStrikeout rate Swing length -1.6zBat speed -1.4zIn-zone contact +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 492 PA 0.62 Sprint speedPull rateIn-zone contact Sweet-spot rate +2.1zBat speed -0.9zWalk rate -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Butler, Lawrence ATH · L · 554 PA 0.62 Pull rateMax exit velocityFly-ball rate xwOBA on contact +1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.3zGround-ball rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Taveras, Leody BAL · L · 496 PA 0.61 Max exit velocityGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact Bat speed -2.0zAvg exit velocity -1.4zChase rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Henderson, Gunnar BAL · L · 719 PA 0.59 Swing lengthStrikeout rateWhiff rate Sweet-spot rate +1.7zOppo rate -1.7zxwOBA on contact +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Yelich, Christian MIL · L · 549 PA 0.59 Avg exit velocityPull rateOppo rate Ground-ball rate +1.6zxwOBA on contact +1.4zWhiff rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Bazzana, Travis CLE · L · 560 PA 0.58 Hard-hit ratePull rateWhiff rate Bat speed -2.4zFly-ball rate +1.4zOppo rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.