Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-12 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
73
Matched
249
Lineups
216
HR BOARD 2026-06-12 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 13.9%market +12.0pp
P 24.5
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +10.2pp
P 15.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 24.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.6pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
04 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 8.9%market +9.1pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
05 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +7.4pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
17.2%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.2pp
P 15.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08 IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +6.2pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +5.5pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
10 IN
STL vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +5.4pp
P 21.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +5.4pp
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
12 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.8pp
P 12.7
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
13 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
14 IN
STL vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.7pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
15 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.2pp
P 17.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 11.3%market +4.2pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
17 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +4.1pp
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.5pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
18 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 14.4%market +3.6pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
19
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +3.5pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
20 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
13.6%Fangorn 10.5%market +3.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 15.0%market +2.9pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
22 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 14.4%market +2.8pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
23 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
15.7%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.7pp
P 15.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.4%market +2.5pp
P 17.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
25 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 11.1%market +2.5pp
P 23.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
10.3pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
26 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 17.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
27 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +2.3pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
28 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 16.0%market +1.9pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
29 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
30 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
31 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.4pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
32 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.4pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
33 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
34
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.9pp
P 18.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
35 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
36 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
37 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
38 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 15.9%market -0.4pp
P 19.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.0pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
39 IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
40 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -0.4pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 14.5%market -0.9pp
P 15.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
2.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6
9.1%Fangorn 11.1%market -2.0pp
P 14.6
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
43 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
15.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.6pp
P 20.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
5.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
44 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.7pp
P 20.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
6.7pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 9.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 22.9%market +3.1pp
P 20.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
5.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 320 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 7
10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 10.9
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 15.5%market +2.4pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 13.1%market +1.1pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
51 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
52 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -0.5pp
P 17.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
53 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -0.6pp
P 20.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -0.8pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -1.1pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
56 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
6.6%Fangorn 8.0%market -1.4pp
P 8.5
F 6.6
V 6.6
1.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
57 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 18.9%market -1.7pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.5pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -1.7pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
59 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.0pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 19.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
61 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 20.2%market -3.0pp
P 16.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
62 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 20.4%market -3.2pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 7.0
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
64 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 21.5%market -3.6pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
65 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.7pp
P 19.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 22.5%market -5.3pp
P 18.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.3pp
P 19.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
68 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 22.5%market -7.0pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.4pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
70 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 23.0%market -7.3pp
P 20.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
5.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.7pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.3pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
72 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 27.0%market -9.8pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -12.1pp
P 22.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
8.7pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1621roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.