Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home runs · three lanes per row.

Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.

Rows
73
Matched
249
Lineups
216
HR BOARD 2026-06-12 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +9.1pp
P 17.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
26.0%Valinor 13.9%market +9.0pp
P 24.5
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
03 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 11.1%market +8.8pp
P 23.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
10.3pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
04 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 12.4%market +8.2pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
05 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 11.8%market +8.0pp
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
06 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 9.8%market +8.0pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
07 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 13.8%market +6.7pp
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.5pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
08 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
17.2%Valinor 11.0%market +6.4pp
P 15.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +6.2pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
10 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 8.9%market +6.0pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
11 IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 11.7%market +5.8pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 10.7%market +5.7pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
13 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 15.5%market +5.7pp
P 20.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
6.7pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
14 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
13.6%Valinor 10.5%market +5.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 13.8%market +5.5pp
P 15.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
2.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
16 IN
STL vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 13.3%market +5.4pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
17 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
15.7%Valinor 17.3%market +5.4pp
P 20.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
5.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 10.6%market +5.3pp
P 14.6
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 15.0%market +5.3pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
20 IN
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +5.2pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.4pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
21 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
15.5%Valinor 14.1%market +5.1pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
22 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 14.4%market +5.1pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
23 IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 13.2%market +4.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
24 IN
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +4.9pp
P 24.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.6pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
25 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 13.0%market +4.7pp
P 17.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
26 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +4.7pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
27 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 13.0%market +4.7pp
P 15.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.2pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
28 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 14.4%market +4.7pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
29 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 13.5%market +4.5pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
30 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
15.5%Valinor 11.3%market +4.5pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
31 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +4.3pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
WSH vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 7.7%market +4.1pp
P 15.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
13.6%Valinor 8.7%market +4.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
34 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +3.9pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
35 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
13.4%Valinor 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
36 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 16.4%market +3.4pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
37 IN
STL vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 12.5%market +3.4pp
P 21.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
38
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
15.7%Valinor 14.8%market +3.3pp
P 18.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
39 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 17.5%market +3.2pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
40 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +3.1pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
41 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 15.2%market +2.8pp
P 19.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.0pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
42 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 16.0%market +2.6pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
43 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
15.5%Valinor 14.1%market +2.6pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 15.4%market +2.6pp
P 17.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
14.2%Valinor 13.1%market +2.4pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +2.2pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 7
10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.1pp
P 10.9
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
SD vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
17.2%Valinor 18.0%market +2.0pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.5pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
49 IN
BOS vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 15.5%market +1.8pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 14.6%market +1.8pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
51 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 18.7%market +1.5pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 19.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
53 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 17.6%market +1.1pp
P 20.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
55 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 16.7%market +0.8pp
P 17.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
56 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +0.7pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
57 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 19.4%market +0.6pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
15.5%Valinor 19.8%market +0.2pp
P 19.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 385 avg 3 books
59 IN
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 17.1%market -0.2pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 20.8%market -0.5pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
61 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
6.6%Valinor 7.7%market -1.1pp
P 8.5
F 6.6
V 6.6
1.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 18.2%market -1.3pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
4.7%Valinor 7.7%market -1.6pp
P 7.0
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
64 IN
BAL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 22.4%market -1.7pp
P 20.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
5.0pp 1.080xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
65 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 22.0%market -1.7pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.4pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
66 IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
17.2%Valinor --market -1.8pp
P 16.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
17.2%Valinor --market -1.9pp
P 18.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
68 IN
TEX vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.4%Valinor --market -2.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69 IN
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
15.7%Valinor --market -2.4pp
P 19.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PIT vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
13.4%Valinor --market -2.8pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.3pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHZack Littell · slot 3
14.2%Valinor --market -3.0pp
P 22.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
8.7pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
72
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1
26.0%Valinor --market -3.0pp
P 20.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
5.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
73 IN
PHI vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
17.2%Valinor --market -6.9pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1621roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.