Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-20 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-08-20

0 activated plays

Gap rows 129

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-08-21 Older: 2026-08-19

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 52.0

Odds / Gap +590 / +9.58%

1+ HR 24.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.201x

Value Rank #2

Daylen Lile

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 43.6

Odds / Gap +770 / +9.23%

1+ HR 20.7%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.201x

Value Rank #3

Luis García Jr.

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 42.8

Odds / Gap +675 / +8.73%

1+ HR 21.6%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.201x

Value Rank #4

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy

Value Score 36.1

Odds / Gap +655 / +7.66%

1+ HR 20.9%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.079x

Value Rank #5

James Wood

Play

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 35.6

Odds / Gap +485 / +5.29%

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.201x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +9.58%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 24.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+9.58%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+9.47%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+9.47%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3

Strong

Best Gap +9.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1150

+9.23%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+9.16%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+9.16%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luis García Jr.

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +8.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+8.73%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+8.73%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+8.64%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +8.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +880 / U -1395

+8.57%

9.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+8.46%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +865 / U -1475

+8.41%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.0

Aaron Judge

NYY vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +8.41%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+8.41%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+6.70%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-11.23%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tj Friedl

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +7.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+7.66%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+7.66%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+7.58%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.0

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+5.77%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+5.64%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+5.52%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alec Burleson

STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+5.73%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+5.73%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+5.73%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+5.60%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+5.48%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+5.48%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.53%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.53%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+5.53%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.45%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.29%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+5.29%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+4.99%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+4.99%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.05%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+5.05%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+5.05%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+5.05%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.76%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+4.76%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+4.76%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+4.76%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Steer

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.76%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+4.76%

13.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+4.76%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +595 / U --

+4.66%

14.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jj Bleday

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.49%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +650 / U -970

+4.49%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +645 / U -910

+4.40%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +645 / U --

+4.40%

13.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.39%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+4.39%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+4.39%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+4.39%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brice Turang

MIL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +4.37%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+4.37%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+4.26%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+4.20%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7

José Tena

WSH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+4.25%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+4.25%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+4.25%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Stephenson

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.21%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+4.21%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+4.13%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+4.13%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.52%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.52%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.52%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.39%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 15.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +345 / U -430

+3.39%

21.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -460

+2.38%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +350 / U --

-6.74%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.23%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+3.23%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+2.10%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-6.49%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+2.66%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+2.51%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+2.51%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Victor Scott II

STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.99%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.99%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.99%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.99%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.2

Edgar Quero

CWS vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.78%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.78%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.78%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.78%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.38%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+1.38%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.22%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+1.06%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Heliot Ramos

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -940

+1.37%

13.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +630 / U -885

+1.28%

13.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +630 / U --

+1.28%

13.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.33%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.34%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-4.62%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+1.27%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+1.27%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+1.27%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+1.01%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+0.89%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+0.89%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.00%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.00%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.50%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.50%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2

Matt Chapman

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+0.35%

15.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -690

+0.22%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+0.22%

16.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jung Hoo Lee

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -0.17%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.17%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.17%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.17%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Rafael Devers

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-0.55%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-1.42%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-2.74%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -610

-0.71%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-1.46%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-2.75%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

José Ramírez

CLE vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.82%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-0.82%

19.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-1.78%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-2.50%

20.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luis Arraez

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.83%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.83%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.83%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.83%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.9

Steven Kwan

CLE vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

-1.13%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

-1.29%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

-1.34%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.1

Ben Rice

NYY vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -730

-1.19%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

-1.32%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

-1.32%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.20%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.20%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.20%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.20%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.4

Willy Adames

SF vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.36%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-1.67%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-1.67%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Eugenio Suárez

CIN vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +355 / U -445

-1.43%

21.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -475

-1.50%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-1.96%

21.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-1.43%

18.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +430 / U -570

-1.69%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-2.05%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 460

Latest Date 2026-09-04

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-04 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	303 matched 0 unmatched	7 / 77 / 41 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bobby Witt Jr. \| 34.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-02 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	276 matched 0 unmatched	18 / 77 / 58 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 53.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	273 matched 0 unmatched	28 / 51 / 81 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-31 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	213 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 74 / 57 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 66 / 93 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jarren Duran \| 50.4	-- Signals --
2026-08-29 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	237 matched 18 unmatched	6 / 44 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Freddie Freeman \| 40.0	-- Signals --
2026-08-28 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	243 matched 0 unmatched	6 / 35 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 36.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%