Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-10 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-09-10

0 activated plays

Gap rows 123

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-09-09

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-09 2026-09-08 2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Yandy Díaz

Strong

TB vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 38.8

Odds / Gap +550 / +7.22%

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.133x

Value Rank #2

Trea Turner

Play

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier

Value Score 32.7

Odds / Gap +580 / +6.67%

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.138x

Value Rank #3

Bryce Harper

Lean

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier

Value Score 32.5

Odds / Gap +415 / +2.92%

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.138x

Value Rank #4

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez

Value Score 29.7

Odds / Gap +615 / +6.52%

1+ HR 20.5%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.133x

Value Rank #5

Cody Bellinger

Lean

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner

Value Score 23.3

Odds / Gap +470 / +3.14%

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.078x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Bohm

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.63%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +805 / U -1225

+7.63%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +795 / U -1295

+7.51%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +795 / U --

+7.51%

11.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brandon Marsh

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6

Strong

Best Gap +7.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1170

+7.60%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +770 / U -1240

+7.47%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +770 / U --

+7.47%

11.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +7.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+7.22%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+7.10%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+7.10%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Correa

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.71%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1155

+6.71%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+6.64%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+6.64%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Trea Turner

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.67%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -835

+6.67%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -785

+6.57%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+6.57%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Aaron Judge

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.53%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+6.53%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+4.82%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-9.35%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+6.52%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+6.52%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+6.43%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jeremy Peña

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.33%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +765 / U -1145

+6.33%

11.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +760 / U -1215

+6.26%

11.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +760 / U --

+6.26%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Cal Raleigh

SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.88%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +275 / U -330

+5.88%

25.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +285 / U -355

+4.60%

25.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +280 / U --

-8.94%

26.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +645 / U -960

+5.52%

12.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +640 / U -905

+5.43%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+5.43%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.3

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+5.11%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -845

+5.02%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+5.02%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.02%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.02%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+5.02%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +655 / U --

+5.02%

13.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jordan Beck

COL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +4.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +870 / U -1375

+4.22%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1455

+4.11%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +860 / U --

+4.11%

10.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8

Jose Altuve

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.84%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+3.84%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+3.71%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+3.59%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.81%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +875 / U -1380

+3.81%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +865 / U --

+3.71%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1460

+3.65%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.4

Brendan Donovan

SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.48%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +890 / U -1410

+3.48%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +875 / U -1495

+3.32%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +875 / U --

+3.32%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+3.14%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.98%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+2.82%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bryce Harper

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.92%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+2.92%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

+2.73%

19.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -515

+2.54%

19.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Adolis García

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -625

+2.85%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

+2.53%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+2.53%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Evan Carter

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1175

+2.41%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1245

+2.34%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+2.34%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Isaac Paredes

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

+2.40%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -700

+2.27%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+2.27%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+2.34%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+1.00%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-5.56%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Drake Baldwin

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

+2.33%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+2.20%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

+2.07%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.28%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+2.28%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+2.14%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+2.14%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wyatt Langford

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+1.86%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+1.75%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+1.75%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.76%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +345 / U -430

+1.76%

21.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -460

+0.75%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +350 / U --

-5.11%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.60%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -715

+1.60%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+1.47%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +505 / U -670

+1.33%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Christian Walker

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.56%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+1.56%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+1.40%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+1.23%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Corey Seager

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +340 / U -420

+1.23%

22.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +350 / U -450

+0.18%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +345 / U --

-4.47%

22.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jake Burger

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.02%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -530

+1.02%

18.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +425 / U -570

+0.08%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-4.38%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Randy Arozarena

SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.98%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +595 / U -865

+0.98%

13.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +590 / U -810

+0.88%

14.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +590 / U --

+0.88%

14.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.73%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -560

+0.73%

18.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -525

+0.36%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+0.36%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 22.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -475

+0.72%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

+0.26%

21.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +355 / U -445

+0.02%

21.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Joc Pederson

TEX vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.30%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -830

+0.30%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -780

+0.20%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+0.20%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ben Rice

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -730

+0.27%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

+0.14%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+0.14%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.17%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +335 / U -415

+0.17%

22.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +345 / U -445

-0.90%

21.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +340 / U --

-3.48%

22.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Naylor

SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+0.14%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+0.00%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+0.00%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.04%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

-0.04%

18.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-0.40%

18.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-0.40%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -505

-0.10%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-0.31%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-0.53%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Julio Rodríguez

SEA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.83%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

-0.83%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-0.99%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

-1.15%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.98%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -525

-0.98%

18.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +420 / U -560

-1.83%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-2.44%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 466

Latest Date 2026-09-10

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-10 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	123 matched 0 unmatched	9 / 25 / 21 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Yandy Díaz \| 38.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-09 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	201 matched 0 unmatched	24 / 52 / 54 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jasson Domínguez \| 55.7	-- Signals --
2026-09-08 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	318 matched 0 unmatched	9 / 50 / 86 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 32.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-07 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	228 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 56 / 34 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Carlos Santana \| 28.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-06 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	228 matched 0 unmatched	8 / 37 / 48 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Alec Burleson \| 42.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-05 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	339 matched 0 unmatched	12 / 68 / 75 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Ezequiel Tovar \| 34.4	-- Signals --
2026-09-04 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	303 matched 0 unmatched	7 / 77 / 41 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bobby Witt Jr. \| 34.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%