Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-09 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-09
0 activated plays
Gap rows 201
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-10 Older: 2026-09-08

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-11 2026-09-10 2026-09-08 2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jasson Domínguez

Strong

NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 55.7
Odds / Gap +640 / +10.38%
1+ HR 23.9%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.160x

Value Rank #2

Luis García Jr.

Strong

NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 52.0
Odds / Gap +635 / +9.82%
1+ HR 23.4%
DraftKings Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.160x

Value Rank #3

Cody Bellinger

Play

NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 48.1
Odds / Gap +455 / +6.33%
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.160x

Value Rank #4

Ben Rice

Lean

NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 45.9
Odds / Gap +400 / +4.33%
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.160x

Value Rank #5

Alec Bohm

Strong

PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown

Value Score 37.4
Odds / Gap +690 / +7.95%
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jasson Domínguez headshot

Jasson Domínguez
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +10.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
+10.38%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -895
+10.28%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+10.28%
13.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +9.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -885
+9.82%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+9.82%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+9.73%
13.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -990
+7.95%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1050
+7.95%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +685 / U --
+7.87%
12.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nathaniel Lowe headshot

Nathaniel Lowe
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+7.57%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+7.49%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+7.49%
12.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brooks Lee headshot

Brooks Lee
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+7.50%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+7.50%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+7.41%
13.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan McMahon headshot

Ryan McMahon
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+7.49%
13.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +610 / U -895
+7.49%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+7.49%
14.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dillon Dingler headshot

Dillon Dingler
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1005
+7.35%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+7.35%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+7.27%
12.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Derek Hill headshot

Derek Hill
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+7.26%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+7.26%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+7.18%
12.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -805
+6.66%
14.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -755
+6.55%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
+6.55%
15.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Michael Massey headshot

Michael Massey
KC vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.63%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +685 / U -1040
+6.63%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.55%
12.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake McCarthy headshot

Jake McCarthy
COL vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1020 / U -1745
+6.51%
8.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1000 / U --
+6.35%
9.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +995 / U -1845
+6.31%
8.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.4
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+6.33%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+6.17%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+6.00%
17.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+6.31%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+6.31%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+6.21%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1065
+6.24%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1130
+6.24%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.16%
12.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.2
Bryson Stott headshot

Bryson Stott
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +835 / U -1290
+6.21%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1365
+6.10%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +825 / U --
+6.10%
10.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.1
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+6.11%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+6.05%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.98%
11.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +680 / U -970
+6.01%
12.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1030
+6.01%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+5.93%
12.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -840
+6.00%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -790
+5.89%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+5.89%
14.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Connor Norby headshot

Connor Norby
COL vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 8
Play
Best Gap +5.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+5.82%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -965
+5.82%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.73%
13.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Wells headshot

Austin Wells
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 8
Play
Best Gap +5.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+5.60%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+5.48%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+5.48%
15.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.6
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+5.40%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+5.30%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+5.30%
14.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dylan Crews headshot

Dylan Crews
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+5.10%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+5.10%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+5.00%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+5.03%
15.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+4.77%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+4.77%
16.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
+4.97%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -895
+4.87%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.87%
13.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +860 / U -1350
+4.92%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1430
+4.81%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +850 / U --
+4.81%
10.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1335
+4.59%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+4.48%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +840 / U -1410
+4.42%
10.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Andrew Vaughn headshot

Andrew Vaughn
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+4.42%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+4.31%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+4.31%
14.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+4.37%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+4.24%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+4.24%
16.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
+4.33%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
+4.13%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+3.92%
19.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Oneil Cruz headshot

Oneil Cruz
PIT vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -805
+4.30%
14.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -755
+4.19%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
+4.19%
15.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -960
+4.26%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1020
+4.26%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.26%
13.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Gonzales headshot

Nick Gonzales
PIT vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1075 / U -1900
+4.26%
8.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1050 / U --
+4.07%
8.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1040 / U -2000
+4.00%
8.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1135 / U -2080
+4.10%
7.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1110 / U --
+3.94%
8.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1095 / U -2190
+3.83%
8.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+3.92%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+3.79%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.79%
16.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+3.65%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -855
+3.55%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.55%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mickey Moniak headshot

Mickey Moniak
COL vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -595
+3.61%
17.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -555
+3.27%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+3.27%
18.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+3.51%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+3.33%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+3.15%
18.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+3.49%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+3.37%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.37%
15.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+3.23%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+3.11%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.11%
15.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +985 / U -1645
+3.15%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +965 / U --
+2.98%
9.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +960 / U -1735
+2.94%
9.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.9
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+2.97%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.65%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.65%
18.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -595
+2.87%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -555
+2.70%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.70%
18.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.77%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+2.39%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+2.39%
19.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+2.67%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -575
+2.51%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+2.51%
18.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -695
+2.38%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
+2.24%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+2.24%
16.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kody Clemens headshot

Kody Clemens
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+2.38%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.21%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+2.04%
17.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+2.30%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+1.98%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.98%
18.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+2.23%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+1.91%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.91%
18.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
PHI vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.13%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.13%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.13%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.3
Jackson Chourio headshot

Jackson Chourio
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +480 / U -660
+2.00%
16.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -615
+1.85%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.85%
17.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Loftin headshot

Nick Loftin
KC vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.90%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.90%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.90%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1135 / U -2080
+1.89%
7.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1110 / U --
+1.73%
8.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1095 / U -2190
+1.62%
8.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Joey Ortiz headshot

Joey Ortiz
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.78%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1125 / U --
+1.62%
8.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1115 / U -2255
+1.55%
7.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.63%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.47%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.30%
17.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+1.21%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +325 / U -410
+0.20%
22.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-4.40%
23.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+1.02%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+0.83%
19.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
+0.63%
19.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+0.84%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.69%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.54%
16.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Sal Frelick headshot

Sal Frelick
MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.75%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.75%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.75%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.3
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -995
+0.54%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+0.54%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+0.54%
12.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
+0.53%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.11%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-0.11%
20.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
+0.46%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -545
+0.11%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.11%
18.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christopher Morel headshot

Christopher Morel
NYM vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap +0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+0.39%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+0.26%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+0.12%
16.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.36%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.16%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.04%
19.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+0.32%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+0.16%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.16%
17.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+0.22%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -445
-0.85%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-3.53%
22.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -455
-1.12%
21.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-1.36%
22.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +345 / U -425
-1.61%
21.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.26%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-1.50%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.74%
21.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 467
Latest Date 2026-09-11
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 309 matched
0 unmatched
 4 / 48 / 68
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 38.9
 --
Signals --
2026-09-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 123 matched
0 unmatched
 9 / 25 / 21
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Yandy Díaz | 38.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-09
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 201 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 52 / 54
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jasson Domínguez | 55.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-08
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 318 matched
0 unmatched
 9 / 50 / 86
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 32.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 56 / 34
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%