Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-16 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-16
0 activated plays
Gap rows 147
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-04-18 Older: 2026-04-15

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp

Value Score 51.4
Odds / Gap +655 / +9.88%
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.230x

Value Rank #2

Elly De La Cruz

Strong

CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp

Value Score 49.6
Odds / Gap +540 / +8.57%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.230x

Value Rank #3

Spencer Steer

Strong

CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp

Value Score 34.3
Odds / Gap +605 / +7.15%
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.230x

Value Rank #4

Jj Bleday

Play

CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp

Value Score 30.1
Odds / Gap +650 / +6.77%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.230x

Value Rank #5

Wyatt Langford

Play

TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 28.5
Odds / Gap +545 / +5.61%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.990x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +9.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+9.88%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+9.88%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+9.80%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.6
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+8.57%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+8.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+8.32%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+7.15%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+7.04%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+7.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.5
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+6.77%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+6.68%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+6.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+6.48%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+6.32%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+6.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.44%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+6.36%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.36%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.99%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.87%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+5.61%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+5.49%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+5.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+5.51%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+5.36%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+5.31%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.89%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.74%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+4.80%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+4.80%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+4.32%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+4.32%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.23%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.23%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.05%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.71%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.89%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.79%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.79%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.88%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+3.88%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.82%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.69%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+3.74%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+3.62%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.62%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.71%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.63%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.66%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+3.50%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.50%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+3.63%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.47%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+3.42%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.9
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.62%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.31%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.31%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.55%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.43%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.20%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.06%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.98%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.86%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.90%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.58%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+2.64%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.48%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+2.39%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.60%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.49%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.57%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+2.57%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.29%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-5.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+2.22%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+2.05%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+2.01%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.15%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.99%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.83%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.12%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+2.01%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.65%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.33%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.61%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.46%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.59%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.43%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.26%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.35%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.04%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+1.28%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+1.00%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.19%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.06%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.06%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+1.01%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.31%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.00%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+0.79%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.58%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.72%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.41%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +480 / U -655
+0.48%
16.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.33%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +470 / U -615
+0.18%
16.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+0.33%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+0.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.06%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.14%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.22%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.20%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.21%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.09%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.03%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-1.44%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.44%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.19%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.74%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.23%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.87%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-1.46%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.56%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%