Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-04 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-04
0 activated plays
Gap rows 156
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-05 Older: 2026-06-03

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello

Value Score 49.2
Odds / Gap +455 / +6.55%
1+ HR 24.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.229x

Value Rank #2

Trea Turner

Strong

PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito

Value Score 49.0
Odds / Gap +580 / +9.04%
1+ HR 23.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.225x

Value Rank #3

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello

Value Score 47.1
Odds / Gap +710 / +9.50%
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.229x

Value Rank #4

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 45.5
Odds / Gap +395 / +4.17%
1+ HR 24.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.141x

Value Rank #5

Alec Bohm

Strong

PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito

Value Score 45.2
Odds / Gap +805 / +9.59%
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.225x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+9.59%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+9.47%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+9.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+9.50%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+9.50%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+9.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+9.04%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+8.94%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+8.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+8.74%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+8.61%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+8.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +8.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+8.53%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+8.38%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+8.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.4
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+8.00%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+7.89%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+7.83%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+7.97%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+7.85%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+7.85%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.9
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+7.53%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+7.41%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+7.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+7.41%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+7.41%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+7.41%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+7.11%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+6.99%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+6.99%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+7.09%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+6.96%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+6.91%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+6.98%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+6.85%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+6.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+6.55%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+6.22%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+6.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+6.14%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+6.14%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+6.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.94%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+5.94%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.23%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+5.89%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+5.75%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+5.75%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+5.88%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+5.72%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+5.56%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+5.87%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+5.72%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+5.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+5.62%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+5.50%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+5.50%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
+5.62%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
+5.43%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
+5.35%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.3
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+5.30%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+5.16%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+5.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+4.96%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+4.81%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+4.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+4.61%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+4.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+4.23%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+4.53%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+4.21%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.47%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.33%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.19%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+4.38%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+4.22%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+4.17%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+3.96%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+3.75%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 23.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+4.03%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+2.32%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-6.85%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+3.62%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+3.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+3.26%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.21%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.21%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.19%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.07%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+3.06%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.89%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+2.71%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.97%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.84%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.71%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+2.84%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+2.71%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+2.62%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+2.26%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+2.26%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+2.13%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+0.91%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-5.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.99%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.99%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.99%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.91%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.60%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.88%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.57%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.85%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+1.34%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.26%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.08%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.90%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+1.23%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.06%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+0.89%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.01%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.02%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-4.36%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.99%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.87%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.87%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs BOS | Brayan Bello | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -440
+0.78%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
+0.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-0.01%
22.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.64%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+0.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.16%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.37%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.03%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs SD | Lucas Giolito | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+0.10%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
-1.24%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-3.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
-0.37%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
-1.38%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-2.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.45%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.37%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-2.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.64%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.77%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.77%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.29%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.89%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%