Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-27 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-27
0 activated plays
Gap rows 156
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-04-28 Older: 2026-04-22

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz

Value Score 41.4
Odds / Gap +640 / +8.36%
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.096x

Value Rank #2

Cody Bellinger

Lean

NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter

Value Score 28.6
Odds / Gap +470 / +3.92%
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.064x

Value Rank #3

Freddie Freeman

Lean

LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack

Value Score 23.1
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.70%
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Pitcher-Friendly | HR 0.887x

Value Rank #4

Wyatt Langford

Play

TEX vs NYY | Max Fried

Value Score 22.2
Odds / Gap +545 / +4.69%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.064x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +8.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+8.36%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+8.36%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+8.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.83%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.83%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.12%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.65%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.04%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.33%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.86%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.00%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.00%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.90%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.83%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.77%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.81%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.72%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.69%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.57%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+4.27%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+4.27%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+4.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.96%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.96%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.96%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.6
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.92%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+3.60%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.70%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.56%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.42%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+3.59%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+3.59%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+3.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.15%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.15%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.05%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.93%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+3.01%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+3.01%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+2.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.91%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+2.79%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.79%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.36%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.25%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.11%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.99%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.09%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.6
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.05%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.92%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.79%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+1.73%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+0.72%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.08%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+1.35%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+1.35%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+1.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+1.24%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+1.11%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.17%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.14%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-4.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+1.12%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+0.99%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+0.94%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.4
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+1.04%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+0.92%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+0.92%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.01%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.86%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.70%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.96%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.46%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 102.2
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.92%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.80%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.80%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.87%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.51%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+0.84%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+0.73%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+0.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.4
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+0.64%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+0.52%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+0.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+0.52%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+0.40%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+0.40%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.49%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.31%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.13%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+0.46%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+0.35%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+0.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+0.30%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+0.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-0.02%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.29%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.12%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.05%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+0.24%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+0.13%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+0.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.20%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.16%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.25%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.17%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-3.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
-0.28%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
-1.41%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-2.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
-0.34%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-0.47%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.36%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.70%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs MIA | Chris Paddack | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.65%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.48%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.68%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.68%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.82%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.95%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.90%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.79%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.45%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-1.17%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.88%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.20%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-1.94%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-2.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.29%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.82%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.36%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.74%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.70%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.70%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.70%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.1

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%