Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline
Home Run Hub
A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.
Top Plays
The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.
No activated HR plays were found for this slate.
High-Upside Board
A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.
High-Upside board not available for this slate.
Snapshot
A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.
Market Signals
The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.
Value Rank #1
BOS vs TOR | Jameson Taillon
Value Rank #2
TB vs ATH | Jacob Lopez
Value Rank #3
NYM vs ATL | Bryce Elder
Value Rank #4
BAL vs MIN | Dean Kremer
Value Rank #5
SF vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski
Full Gap Board
The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.
Analytics
This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.
History
| Date | Rows | Recommendations | Signals | Grading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
174 matched
0 unmatched
|
0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
|
3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
228 matched
0 unmatched
|
8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
339 matched
0 unmatched
|
12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
303 matched
0 unmatched
|
7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
126 matched
0 unmatched
|
3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
|
4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
276 matched
0 unmatched
|
18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
273 matched
0 unmatched
|
28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
213 matched
0 unmatched
|
13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
|
--
Signals --
|
Analytics
Play Tiers
Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%
Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%
Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%
Sportsbooks
BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%
DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%
FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%
Odds Buckets
+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%
+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%
+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%
