Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-30 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-30
0 activated plays
Gap rows 204
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-31 Older: 2026-07-29

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-08 2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bobby Witt Jr.

Play

KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober

Value Score 41.8
Odds / Gap +470 / +5.83%
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.150x

Value Rank #2

Vinnie Pasquantino

Play

KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober

Value Score 40.0
Odds / Gap +475 / +5.69%
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.150x

Value Rank #3

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes

Value Score 31.5
Odds / Gap +590 / +6.60%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.020x

Value Rank #4

Josh Bell

Play

MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron

Value Score 31.5
Odds / Gap +555 / +6.21%
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.150x

Value Rank #5

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin

Value Score 28.7
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.38%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.020x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+8.35%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+8.20%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+8.15%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.78%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.07%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.60%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+6.68%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+6.68%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.60%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.60%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.49%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.49%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+6.59%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+6.59%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+6.59%
12.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.38%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.38%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.29%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.24%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.17%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.17%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.23%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.23%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.23%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+6.21%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+6.10%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+6.10%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.18%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.47%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.00%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +730 / U -1075
+5.99%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1140
+5.99%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +725 / U --
+5.92%
12.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.96%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.96%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.87%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+5.83%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+5.67%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+5.67%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.78%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.78%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.78%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+5.69%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+5.38%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+5.38%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.46%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.38%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.38%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.26%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+5.26%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.92%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.48%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.04%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.95%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.95%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.92%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.81%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+4.76%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.6
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.83%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.75%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.75%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.72%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.72%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+4.72%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.44%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.32%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.32%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.02%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.93%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.93%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.00%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.00%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.00%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+3.87%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+3.76%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+3.76%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+3.79%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+3.65%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+3.51%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.65%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.49%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+3.33%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+3.63%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+3.47%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+3.31%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.59%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.59%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.59%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.50%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.50%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.50%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
+3.49%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
+3.36%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+3.36%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.41%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.27%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.13%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.86%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.74%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.74%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+2.73%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+2.60%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+2.55%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+2.67%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+2.53%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+2.39%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.60%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.60%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.60%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.37%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.07%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.07%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.30%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.17%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+2.04%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.14%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.00%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.00%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+2.08%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+1.96%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+1.96%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.05%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.92%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.79%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+1.98%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+1.65%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.65%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.95%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.95%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.95%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.7
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+1.76%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.64%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.64%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+1.73%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.62%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.62%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+1.48%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+0.47%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-4.83%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.43%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.26%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.22%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+1.41%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+1.30%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+1.30%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+1.33%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+1.17%
17.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+1.01%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+1.27%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.99%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.99%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.20%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.20%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.20%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.9
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.12%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-0.13%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.17%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.99%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.80%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.61%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.82%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.69%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.69%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.80%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.43%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.43%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.61%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.15%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.09%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.53%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.17%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.17%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.53%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.48%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.82%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.35%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.17%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.01%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.24%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.24%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.24%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.16%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.01%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.19%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.12%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.31%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.50%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.31%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-0.55%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.79%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs SD | Jp Sears | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.35%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-0.55%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.76%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.43%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.60%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.77%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.44%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.44%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.44%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.49%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.32%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.87%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.78%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.72%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.55%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 464
Latest Date 2026-09-08
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-08
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 285 matched
0 unmatched
 9 / 49 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 32.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 56 / 34
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%