Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-29 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-29
0 activated plays
Gap rows 300
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-30 Older: 2026-07-28

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-08 2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bryce Harper

Lean

PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto

Value Score 42.0
Odds / Gap +415 / +4.30%
1+ HR 23.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.156x

Value Rank #2

Trea Turner

Strong

PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto

Value Score 40.9
Odds / Gap +580 / +7.86%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.156x

Value Rank #3

Brandon Marsh

Strong

PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto

Value Score 40.0
Odds / Gap +780 / +8.74%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.156x

Value Rank #4

Jesús Sánchez

Strong

TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell

Value Score 37.6
Odds / Gap +685 / +8.01%
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.103x

Value Rank #5

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore

Value Score 33.9
Odds / Gap +550 / +6.51%
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.116x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+8.74%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+8.61%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+8.61%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +8.66%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+8.66%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.95%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-11.48%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+8.55%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+8.43%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+8.43%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+8.01%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+7.93%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+7.93%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+7.86%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+7.76%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+7.76%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+7.40%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+7.26%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+7.21%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+6.78%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+6.60%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+6.55%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+6.66%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+6.54%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+6.54%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.51%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.39%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.39%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+6.43%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+6.27%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+6.19%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.6
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+5.88%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+5.73%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+5.68%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+5.73%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+5.73%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.64%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+5.72%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.01%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.54%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.69%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.57%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.57%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.1
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+5.39%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+5.31%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+5.31%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.36%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.27%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.27%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+5.27%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+5.15%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+5.15%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.25%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+5.14%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+5.14%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+5.18%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+5.10%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.10%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.8
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+5.02%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.88%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.88%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+5.02%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+4.94%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.94%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+4.91%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+4.77%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.77%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.84%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+4.71%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.71%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.67%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+4.56%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.56%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.56%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.48%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.48%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.50%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.36%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.22%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+4.38%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.22%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.17%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.9
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+4.30%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+4.11%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+3.92%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.30%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.30%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.30%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+4.28%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.97%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.97%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+4.28%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+4.16%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+4.16%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+4.26%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+4.19%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+4.19%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.17%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.17%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.17%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.10%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.10%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.10%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+4.00%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+2.87%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-7.26%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+3.93%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+3.79%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+3.79%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.80%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+3.64%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.64%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+3.77%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+3.63%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+3.58%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+3.72%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+3.55%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+3.37%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+3.71%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+3.39%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+3.39%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.66%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.35%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.35%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+3.57%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+2.56%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-6.92%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+3.54%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+3.42%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+3.42%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.20%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.05%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.89%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+3.17%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+3.03%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+2.88%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+3.07%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.94%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.81%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+3.05%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.05%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.05%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.97%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+2.84%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.84%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.91%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.79%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.79%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.41%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.32%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.32%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+2.30%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.15%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.99%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.24%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.24%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.24%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.96%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.81%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.66%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+1.89%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+0.70%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-5.06%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.77%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+1.64%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.64%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs MIN | Joe Ryan | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.71%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.55%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.39%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+1.50%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+1.39%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+1.33%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.8
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+1.46%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.34%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.34%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.41%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.23%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.05%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+1.18%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+1.07%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+1.07%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.15%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+0.94%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.73%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.13%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.97%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+0.81%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+1.07%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-0.13%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-4.26%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.02%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.72%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.72%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+0.95%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
-0.39%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-4.17%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+0.93%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+0.93%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+0.93%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+0.86%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
+0.47%
19.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.47%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+0.85%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
-0.22%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-4.16%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.79%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.48%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.48%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+0.58%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.43%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.43%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.54%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.37%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.20%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.41%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.24%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.06%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.31%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.13%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.06%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.26%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.11%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-0.05%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.08%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.38%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
-0.38%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.59%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.41%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.28%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.28%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.28%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.59%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.91%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.82%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.03%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.25%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.01%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-1.25%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.49%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.03%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.03%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.03%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.03%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.03%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.03%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.4
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.14%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.85%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.10%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-1.25%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.38%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-1.38%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.29%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.83%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.19%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-1.29%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-1.46%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.64%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.37%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.56%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.75%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.42%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.76%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.94%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.43%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-1.69%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.87%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 464
Latest Date 2026-09-08
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-08
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 285 matched
0 unmatched
 9 / 49 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 32.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 56 / 34
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%