Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-13 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-13
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-14 Older: 2026-08-12

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 43.5
Odds / Gap +715 / +9.00%
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.016x

Value Rank #2

Cody Bellinger

Play

NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert

Value Score 37.1
Odds / Gap +470 / +5.15%
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.138x

Value Rank #3

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero

Value Score 34.3
Odds / Gap +395 / +2.55%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.102x

Value Rank #4

Julio Rodríguez

Lean

SEA vs NYY | Max Fried

Value Score 24.5
Odds / Gap +440 / +2.53%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.138x

Value Rank #5

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman

Value Score 24.1
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.52%
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.034x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+9.00%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+9.00%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+9.00%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+6.93%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+6.81%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+6.81%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+6.65%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+6.65%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+6.57%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.52%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+6.52%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.44%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+6.11%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+6.11%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.03%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.60%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.53%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.53%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.52%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.41%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.41%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+5.46%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+5.46%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+5.46%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.35%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.22%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.22%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+5.15%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+4.99%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+4.83%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.01%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.01%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.92%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.94%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.86%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.86%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+4.83%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+4.65%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+4.60%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 22.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+4.69%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+2.98%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-7.51%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.69%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.56%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.44%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.51%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.51%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.17%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.73%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+4.47%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.31%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.26%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+4.43%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+4.35%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+4.35%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.20%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.08%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.08%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+4.18%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+4.06%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+4.06%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.14%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+4.03%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.03%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+4.13%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+4.03%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+4.03%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+4.08%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+3.92%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.84%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.94%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.83%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.78%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.88%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.76%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.76%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.73%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.73%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.65%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.71%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.71%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+3.61%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+3.64%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+3.52%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+3.52%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.57%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.48%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.48%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.36%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.36%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.36%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.34%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.26%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.26%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.30%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.22%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.22%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.10%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.10%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.10%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.98%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+2.98%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+1.79%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-6.15%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.62%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.50%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.50%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+2.55%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+2.34%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+2.13%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.53%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.36%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+2.18%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.46%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.33%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.33%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.94%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.81%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.81%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+1.91%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+1.78%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.78%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.84%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.48%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+1.48%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.58%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.58%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.58%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.49%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.34%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.18%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.39%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.09%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.09%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.33%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.33%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.33%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.5
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+1.25%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.11%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.96%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.54%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.42%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.42%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.6
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.42%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.23%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.04%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+0.28%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.04%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.04%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.21%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.06%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.09%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+0.20%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
-0.81%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-3.55%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.16%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+0.03%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.03%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.11%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.92%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.46%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.00%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.88%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.35%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.11%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.28%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.46%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.14%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.27%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.27%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.42%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.38%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.97%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.94%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.94%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.45%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.68%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.88%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.56%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.62%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.74%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462
Latest Date 2026-09-06
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%