Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-14 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-14
0 activated plays
Gap rows 213
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-15 Older: 2026-08-13

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt

Value Score 26.8
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.11%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.044x

Value Rank #2

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 22.7
Odds / Gap +540 / +4.66%
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.033x

Value Rank #3

Cody Bellinger

Lean

NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber

Value Score 18.9
Odds / Gap +470 / +2.50%
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.999x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.26%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.26%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.55%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.08%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.49%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+6.49%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.41%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.11%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.11%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.02%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +730 / U -1075
+5.02%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1140
+5.02%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +725 / U --
+4.95%
12.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.98%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.98%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.98%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.80%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.71%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.71%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.66%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.53%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.41%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.59%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.44%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.44%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+4.53%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+4.41%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+4.41%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+4.52%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.45%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.45%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.24%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.90%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.46%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+4.20%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.13%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.13%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.71%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.71%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+3.61%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.55%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.43%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.43%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.54%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.45%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.45%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.52%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.52%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+3.52%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+3.30%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+2.17%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-6.56%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.30%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.22%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.22%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+3.29%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+3.13%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.05%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.18%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+3.18%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.18%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+2.94%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+2.94%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.94%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.94%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.81%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.81%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+2.89%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.78%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.78%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+2.87%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.75%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.75%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.76%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.64%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.64%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.71%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+2.57%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+2.43%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.70%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.62%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.62%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.61%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.48%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.36%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.50%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.34%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.18%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.44%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.33%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.33%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.41%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.40%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.76%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+2.15%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+2.09%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+2.09%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+2.15%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.98%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.94%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.8
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+2.10%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+1.99%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+1.93%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.04%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.91%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.78%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+2.04%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.88%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+1.83%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.6
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+1.92%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.80%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+1.80%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.90%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.76%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.76%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.86%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.86%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.86%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.45%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.45%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.45%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.35%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.22%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.22%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+1.24%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.09%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.09%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.15%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.15%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.15%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+1.02%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+0.86%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+0.86%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.2
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.99%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.84%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.84%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+0.81%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.48%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.48%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+0.77%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+0.77%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+0.69%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.77%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.04%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-4.19%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.66%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.22%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-4.01%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+0.59%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+0.59%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+0.51%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.9
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.54%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.40%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.25%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.46%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.09%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.09%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.40%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.24%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.07%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.36%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.10%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.34%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.13%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.13%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.13%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.08%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.29%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.50%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-0.25%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-0.38%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.38%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.37%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.55%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.73%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.38%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.34%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.01%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.41%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.46%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.59%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.59%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.46%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.47%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.83%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.47%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.62%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.77%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.62%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.98%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.98%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.62%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.62%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.1
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-0.75%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.90%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.06%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.85%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.85%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.85%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.7
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.94%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.88%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.42%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.27%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-1.50%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.73%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.31%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.52%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.74%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.50%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.69%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.70%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462
Latest Date 2026-09-06
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%