Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-12 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-12
0 activated plays
Gap rows 273
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-13 Older: 2026-08-11

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews

Value Score 37.1
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.05%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.030x

Value Rank #2

Bobby Witt Jr.

Lean

KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer

Value Score 34.4
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.40%
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.975x

Value Rank #3

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo

Value Score 33.9
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.34%
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.050x

Value Rank #4

Gunnar Henderson

Lean

BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews

Value Score 32.4
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.10%
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.030x

Value Rank #5

Alec Burleson

Play

STL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler

Value Score 31.9
Odds / Gap +625 / +6.90%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.178x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.05%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.05%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+7.98%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+7.58%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+7.42%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+7.42%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.34%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.34%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.26%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+7.30%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+7.14%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.14%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.90%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.90%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.90%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+5.81%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.10%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.63%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.74%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.66%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.66%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.51%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.38%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.26%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.26%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.20%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.20%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+5.25%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+5.25%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.16%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+5.15%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+5.05%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+5.05%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.10%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+5.01%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.01%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+4.96%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+4.80%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+4.72%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+4.83%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.83%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.73%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+4.80%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.80%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.72%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -865
+4.74%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -920
+4.74%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.64%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+4.74%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+4.58%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.58%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.71%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.65%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.58%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.63%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.54%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.54%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.58%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.58%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.58%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+4.49%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+4.49%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.41%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+4.47%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.37%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+4.32%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.46%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.46%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.36%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.40%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.07%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.07%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.31%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.22%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.22%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.19%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.04%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.04%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.14%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.02%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.02%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.10%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+3.77%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.77%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+4.10%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+4.00%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+4.00%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.01%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.91%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.91%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.00%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.92%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.92%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.98%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.86%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.86%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.85%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.69%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+3.53%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.85%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.85%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.77%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.67%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.59%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.59%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+3.62%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+3.51%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.51%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.59%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.45%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.45%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+3.54%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+3.40%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+3.35%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+3.37%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+3.25%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.25%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.35%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.23%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.23%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+2.90%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+2.90%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+2.90%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.82%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.48%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.04%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.72%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.59%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.59%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+2.63%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+2.63%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+2.55%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.62%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.46%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+2.30%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+2.50%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+2.36%
16.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+2.22%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.39%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.39%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.39%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.34%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.06%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.06%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+2.32%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+2.15%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+2.11%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.4
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+2.29%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.01%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-5.35%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+2.23%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.07%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+1.98%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.6
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.12%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.93%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.74%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.11%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.94%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+1.76%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+2.04%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+1.93%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+1.93%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.01%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.90%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.90%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.86%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.70%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.70%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+1.60%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.46%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+1.31%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.53%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.36%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.19%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.50%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.37%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.37%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+1.19%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+0.18%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-4.54%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+1.17%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+1.03%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.89%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.54%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.54%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
+1.00%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
+0.81%
8.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
+0.73%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.85%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.72%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.72%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.82%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.67%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.51%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.77%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.62%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.62%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.63%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.27%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.27%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.54%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.39%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.24%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.47%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+0.34%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.34%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.21%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.02%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.25%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.06%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.11%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.28%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.02%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.05%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.33%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.05%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.18%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.18%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
-0.28%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-0.40%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-0.40%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.29%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.60%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.60%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
-0.38%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
-0.50%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
-0.50%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-0.41%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.66%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-2.64%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.43%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.31%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-2.92%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.49%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.70%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.91%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.58%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.76%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.94%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.84%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.73%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.51%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-0.86%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.95%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.52%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.96%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.77%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.46%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.99%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.95%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.33%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.10%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.52%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.74%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.17%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.17%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.17%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.21%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.72%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.18%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.21%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.92%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.14%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.22%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.40%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.59%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
-1.43%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-1.56%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-1.56%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.55%
19.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.58%
19.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.75%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462
Latest Date 2026-09-06
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%