Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-17 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-08-17

0 activated plays

Gap rows 213

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-08-18 Older: 2026-08-16

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Freddie Freeman

Strong

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 48.0

Odds / Gap +495 / +7.32%

1+ HR 24.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.084x

Value Rank #2

Ozzie Albies

Strong

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober

Value Score 39.9

Odds / Gap +615 / +8.01%

1+ HR 22.0%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.128x

Value Rank #3

Kyle Tucker

Lean

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 37.1

Odds / Gap +430 / +4.06%

1+ HR 22.9%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.084x

Value Rank #4

Mookie Betts

Play

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 31.3

Odds / Gap +525 / +5.57%

1+ HR 21.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.084x

Value Rank #5

Josh Bell

Play

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 29.9

Odds / Gap +555 / +5.98%

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.128x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +8.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+8.01%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+8.01%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+7.92%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +7.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 24.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+7.32%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+7.18%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -640

+7.04%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Austin Hays

CWS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.12%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1060

+7.12%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +725 / U -1125

+7.12%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

+7.04%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alec Bohm

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.56%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +805 / U -1225

+6.56%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +795 / U -1295

+6.44%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +795 / U --

+6.44%

11.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brandon Marsh

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.53%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1170

+6.53%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +770 / U -1240

+6.40%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +770 / U --

+6.40%

11.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.53%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+6.53%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -845

+6.44%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+6.44%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tj Friedl

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.42%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+6.42%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+6.42%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+6.34%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.6

Ryan Jeffers

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+6.32%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+6.32%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +675 / U --

+6.32%

12.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +6.08%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +645 / U -960

+6.08%

12.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +640 / U -905

+5.99%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+5.99%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1

Josh Bell

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.98%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+5.98%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

+5.87%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+5.87%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1060

+5.88%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +720 / U -1125

+5.80%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

+5.80%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Kurtz

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.76%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+5.76%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+4.42%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-8.98%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mookie Betts

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+5.57%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+5.44%

16.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -690

+5.31%

15.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.49%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.49%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+5.49%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +655 / U --

+5.49%

13.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Trea Turner

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.48%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -835

+5.48%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -785

+5.38%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+5.38%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.43%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +785 / U -1180

+5.43%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1250

+5.30%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+5.30%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.2

Jordan Beck

COL vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.39%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +870 / U -1375

+5.39%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1455

+5.28%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +860 / U --

+5.28%

10.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+5.15%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+5.03%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+5.03%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.11%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+5.11%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.03%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.82%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +875 / U -1380

+4.82%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +865 / U --

+4.72%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1460

+4.66%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.6

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.54%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+4.54%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+4.41%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+4.29%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ian Happ

CHC vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+4.44%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+4.32%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+4.32%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Bichette

NYM vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.37%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1060

+4.37%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +720 / U -1125

+4.29%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

+4.29%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.35%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+4.35%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+4.35%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+4.35%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.06%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

+4.06%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+3.88%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

+3.70%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Marcus Semien

NYM vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.02%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +630 / U -930

+4.02%

13.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +625 / U -875

+3.93%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+3.93%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 11.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+3.77%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+3.77%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+3.77%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9

Drake Baldwin

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.68%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

+3.68%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+3.55%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

+3.42%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.63%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+3.63%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+3.49%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+3.49%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Spencer Steer

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.61%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+3.61%

13.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+3.61%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +595 / U --

+3.51%

14.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Dansby Swanson

CHC vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.59%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -890

+3.59%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +635 / U -945

+3.59%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+3.59%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Colt Keith

DET vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1260

+3.57%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1335

+3.45%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

+3.45%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.48%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+3.48%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+2.14%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-6.70%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jj Bleday

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.42%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +650 / U -970

+3.42%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +645 / U -910

+3.33%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +645 / U --

+3.33%

13.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.39%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -800

+3.39%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+3.27%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+3.27%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.36%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+3.36%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+3.27%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+3.27%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.23%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 23.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+3.23%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+1.52%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-6.05%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Stephenson

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.21%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+3.21%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+3.13%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+3.13%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -605

+3.11%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+2.94%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+2.77%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 10.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+2.94%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+2.94%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+2.94%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.2

Heriberto Hernández

MIA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +2.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+2.88%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+2.80%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+2.80%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alex Bregman

CHC vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.86%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -795

+2.86%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+2.74%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+2.74%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.44%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

+2.44%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+2.30%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+2.16%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7

Matt Olson

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +2.32%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 23.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -475

+2.32%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

+1.86%

21.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +355 / U -445

+1.62%

21.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Zach McKinstry

DET vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.30%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1715

+2.30%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+2.14%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1810

+2.09%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -560

+2.26%

18.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -525

+1.89%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+1.89%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +2.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +930 / U -1510

+2.05%

9.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +915 / U --

+1.91%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +910 / U -1595

+1.86%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bryce Harper

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.78%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+1.78%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

+1.59%

19.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -515

+1.40%

19.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.75%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.75%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.76%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-5.04%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Lawrence Butler

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.58%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +545 / U -775

+1.58%

14.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+1.46%

15.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

+1.46%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Adolis García

PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.57%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -625

+1.57%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

+1.25%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+1.25%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.43%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.93%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.93%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.8

Jorge Polanco

NYM vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -675

+1.24%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -635

+0.96%

16.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +485 / U --

+0.96%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+1.24%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+1.13%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+1.13%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shea Langeliers

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.96%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+0.96%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +390 / U -505

-0.05%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-4.25%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Juan Soto

NYM vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +310 / U -375

+0.92%

23.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +320 / U -405

-0.33%

22.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +315 / U --

-3.97%

24.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Francisco Lindor

NYM vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.88%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -555

+0.88%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+0.69%

19.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +410 / U -520

+0.50%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.68%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.18%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.18%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 103.1

Jacob Wilson

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.57%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1005 / U -1700

+0.57%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +985 / U --

+0.40%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +980 / U -1795

+0.36%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.0

Max Muncy

LAD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.56%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -565

+0.56%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

+0.38%

19.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -530

+0.19%

18.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nico Hoerner

CHC vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.35%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.35%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.35%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.6

Michael Busch

CHC vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+0.13%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

-0.04%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -550

-0.22%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+0.03%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-0.96%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-3.32%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Riley Greene

DET vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +445 / U -600

-0.21%

17.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +440 / U --

-0.38%

18.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +435 / U -560

-0.55%

18.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Eugenio Suárez

CIN vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +355 / U -445

-0.27%

21.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -475

-1.23%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-3.12%

21.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brent Rooker

ATH vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.30%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +360 / U -450

-0.30%

21.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -480

-1.24%

20.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

-3.03%

21.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-0.33%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-0.57%

22.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +350 / U -435

-0.81%

21.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Kerry Carpenter

DET vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -495

-0.41%

19.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +400 / U -530

-1.35%

19.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +395 / U --

-2.98%

20.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Torkelson

DET vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

-0.55%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.69%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -635

-0.83%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.48%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.98%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.02%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9

Hunter Goodman

COL vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.49%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -525

-1.49%

18.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +420 / U -560

-1.74%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-1.93%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462

Latest Date 2026-09-06

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-06 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	228 matched 0 unmatched	8 / 37 / 48 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Alec Burleson \| 42.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-05 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	339 matched 0 unmatched	12 / 68 / 75 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Ezequiel Tovar \| 34.4	-- Signals --
2026-09-04 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	303 matched 0 unmatched	7 / 77 / 41 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bobby Witt Jr. \| 34.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-02 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	276 matched 0 unmatched	18 / 77 / 58 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 53.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	273 matched 0 unmatched	28 / 51 / 81 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-31 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	213 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 74 / 57 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 66 / 93 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jarren Duran \| 50.4	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%