Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-16 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-16
0 activated plays
Gap rows 279
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-17 Older: 2026-08-15

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez

Value Score 43.6
Odds / Gap +655 / +8.75%
1+ HR 22.0%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.135x

Value Rank #2

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta

Value Score 38.9
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.31%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.095x

Value Rank #3

Ozzie Albies

Strong

ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka

Value Score 38.7
Odds / Gap +615 / +7.83%
1+ HR 21.8%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.131x

Value Rank #4

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez

Value Score 38.5
Odds / Gap +540 / +6.95%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.135x

Value Rank #5

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin

Value Score 36.7
Odds / Gap +725 / +8.05%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.039x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +9.58%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+9.58%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+7.87%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-12.40%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +8.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+8.75%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+8.75%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+8.67%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.31%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.31%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.24%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+8.05%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+7.97%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.97%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+7.83%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+7.83%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+7.74%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+7.59%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+7.47%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+7.47%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+6.95%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+6.82%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+6.70%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+6.85%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+6.71%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+6.66%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+6.78%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+6.66%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+6.66%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+6.56%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.43%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.43%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+6.42%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+6.32%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+6.32%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.37%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+6.28%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.28%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+6.27%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+6.11%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+6.11%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+6.12%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+6.00%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+6.00%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+6.08%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+5.92%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+5.87%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+6.00%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+5.86%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+5.81%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.97%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+5.88%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.88%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+5.76%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+5.76%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+5.66%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+5.72%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.65%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.65%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.69%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.57%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.57%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+5.51%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+5.39%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+5.39%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.48%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.38%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.38%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+5.47%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+5.38%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+5.38%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.38%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.23%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.23%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+5.33%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+5.26%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+5.26%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+5.29%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+5.29%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+5.29%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+5.20%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+5.12%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.12%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+5.13%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+5.05%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+5.05%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.87%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.75%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.75%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+4.76%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+4.64%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.64%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.75%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.63%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.63%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.43%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.10%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.10%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+4.37%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+3.36%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-7.72%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+4.26%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+4.26%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.26%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.17%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.17%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.17%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+4.10%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.93%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+3.76%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.10%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.97%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.97%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.79%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.69%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.69%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.63%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.50%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.38%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+3.52%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+3.39%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+3.26%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+3.47%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.33%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.33%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+3.43%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+3.43%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.34%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+3.38%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.22%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+3.17%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.3
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.30%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.18%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.18%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.30%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.96%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.52%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.27%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.13%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.13%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+3.23%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.95%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.95%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.21%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.13%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.13%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+3.09%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+2.90%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+2.71%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+2.85%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+2.68%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+2.51%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.61%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.61%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.61%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+2.40%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.12%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-5.46%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.30%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.17%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.17%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.30%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.14%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.98%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.26%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.26%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.26%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.24%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.10%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.96%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.16%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.00%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.00%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+2.15%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.00%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.00%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+2.15%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+1.69%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+1.45%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+2.09%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+1.72%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.72%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+2.05%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
+0.98%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-5.36%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+1.81%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.69%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.69%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.78%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.59%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.40%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.78%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.62%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+1.46%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.72%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.57%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.41%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.57%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.25%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.25%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.39%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.23%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.06%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.04%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+0.83%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.62%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+1.00%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.83%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+0.66%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+0.92%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+0.79%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.79%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+0.86%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+0.70%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+0.61%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.80%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.80%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.80%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.78%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.60%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.42%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.69%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.53%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.36%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+0.68%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+0.54%
16.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.40%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+0.55%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+0.33%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.10%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+0.20%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.04%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
-0.12%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.20%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.05%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-0.11%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
+0.14%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-0.06%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.27%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
+0.01%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-0.40%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.40%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.04%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.35%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.35%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.24%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.45%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.67%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.35%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.17%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.13%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-0.37%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.23%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.07%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.43%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.89%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.13%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.44%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.90%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.14%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.92%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-1.09%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.27%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.06%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.80%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.32%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.06%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.44%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 101.8
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-1.08%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-1.27%
19.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.47%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.11%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.11%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.11%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.3
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.26%
15.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-1.95%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-2.26%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-1.28%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.48%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-1.77%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462
Latest Date 2026-09-06
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%