Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-18 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-08-18

0 activated plays

Gap rows 285

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-08-19 Older: 2026-08-17

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 54.7

Odds / Gap +590 / +9.98%

1+ HR 24.5%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.206x

Value Rank #2

Daylen Lile

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 45.6

Odds / Gap +770 / +9.52%

1+ HR 21.0%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.206x

Value Rank #3

Luis García Jr.

Strong

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 45.1

Odds / Gap +675 / +9.06%

1+ HR 22.0%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.206x

Value Rank #4

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer

Value Score 43.4

Odds / Gap +645 / +8.68%

1+ HR 22.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.044x

Value Rank #5

Brenton Doyle

Strong

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer

Value Score 38.3

Odds / Gap +655 / +7.98%

1+ HR 21.2%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.044x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +9.98%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 24.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+9.98%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+9.87%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+9.87%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3

Strong

Best Gap +9.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1150

+9.52%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+9.45%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+9.45%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luis García Jr.

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +9.06%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+9.06%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+9.06%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+8.97%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +8.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +880 / U -1395

+8.77%

9.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+8.66%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +865 / U -1475

+8.61%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +8.68%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +645 / U -960

+8.68%

12.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +640 / U -905

+8.59%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+8.59%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.3

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 7

Strong

Best Gap +8.20%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+8.20%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+8.08%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+8.08%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jordan Beck

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 7

Strong

Best Gap +8.02%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +870 / U -1375

+8.02%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1455

+7.91%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +860 / U --

+7.91%

10.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.98%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+7.98%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+7.98%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +655 / U --

+7.98%

13.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Adley Rutschman

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

+7.93%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1090

+7.86%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

+7.86%

12.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.89%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +875 / U -1380

+7.89%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +865 / U --

+7.79%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1460

+7.73%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.8

Jarren Duran

BOS vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +715 / U -1045

+7.25%

11.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +715 / U -1110

+7.25%

11.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +715 / U --

+7.25%

12.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6

Ramón Urías

STL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.05%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+7.05%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+6.93%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+6.93%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bo Bichette

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +6.92%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

+6.92%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +695 / U -1065

+6.92%

12.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

+6.84%

12.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Aaron Judge

NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.73%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+6.73%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+5.02%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-9.55%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.12%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+6.12%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+4.41%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-8.94%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+5.93%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+5.85%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+5.85%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.76%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+5.76%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+5.76%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+5.76%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+5.60%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+5.30%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+5.30%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nolan Schanuel

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1035 / U -1785

+5.52%

8.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1015 / U --

+5.36%

9.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1005 / U -1885

+5.28%

8.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.45%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+5.45%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+5.45%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+5.36%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.35%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+5.35%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+5.21%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+5.16%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brice Turang

MIL vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.26%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+5.26%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+5.15%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+5.09%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4

Brendan Donovan

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +955 / U -1570

+5.25%

9.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +935 / U --

+5.07%

9.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +930 / U -1655

+5.02%

9.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -895

+5.13%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+5.13%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+5.03%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Roman Anthony

BOS vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.10%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1010

+5.10%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1070

+5.10%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+5.02%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.07%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+5.07%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+5.07%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+5.07%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Horwitz

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +4.95%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +755 / U -1115

+4.95%

11.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +750 / U -1185

+4.89%

11.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +745 / U --

+4.82%

11.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+4.94%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+4.85%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+4.85%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +4.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -975

+4.85%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +650 / U -920

+4.77%

12.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+4.77%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcus Semien

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.83%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -880

+4.83%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

+4.72%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+4.72%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +4.72%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +855 / U -1340

+4.72%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1415

+4.61%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +845 / U --

+4.61%

10.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

José Tena

WSH vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+4.44%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+4.44%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+4.44%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +4.36%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+4.36%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+4.22%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -640

+4.08%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +4.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -940

+4.25%

13.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +630 / U -885

+4.16%

13.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +630 / U --

+4.16%

13.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Rob Refsnyder

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +4.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

+4.15%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +690 / U -1060

+4.07%

12.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

+4.07%

12.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+4.13%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -845

+4.04%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+4.04%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Randy Arozarena

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.79%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+3.79%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+3.68%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+3.68%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Santana

AZ vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +595 / U -865

+3.73%

13.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +590 / U -815

+3.63%

14.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +590 / U --

+3.63%

14.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.46%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+3.46%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+3.46%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+3.38%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.33%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+3.33%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+3.21%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+3.21%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.32%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 15.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+3.32%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+2.33%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-6.61%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cal Raleigh

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.29%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +285 / U -345

+3.29%

25.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +295 / U -370

+2.10%

24.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +290 / U --

-6.46%

25.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Gunnar Henderson

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+3.09%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+2.79%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+2.79%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.05%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+3.05%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+2.90%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+2.90%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.00%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+3.00%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.84%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+2.68%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+2.93%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+2.82%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+2.82%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mookie Betts

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+2.90%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+2.77%

16.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -690

+2.64%

15.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +2.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+2.88%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1085

+2.88%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+2.80%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Zach Neto

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.86%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -670

+2.86%

16.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +485 / U --

+2.72%

17.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -630

+2.57%

16.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.84%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+2.84%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+2.72%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+2.72%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.74%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+2.74%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+2.60%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+2.60%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.69%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 11.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +990 / U -1665

+2.69%

8.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +975 / U --

+2.56%

9.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +965 / U -1760

+2.47%

9.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.6

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.64%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+2.64%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+2.64%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+2.64%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.59%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+2.59%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+1.46%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-5.85%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Taylor Ward

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.55%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+2.55%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+2.38%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+2.20%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+2.43%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+2.43%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+2.43%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9

Julio Rodríguez

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.16%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+2.16%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+1.99%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+1.81%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

George Springer

TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.08%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+1.77%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.77%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willson Contreras

BOS vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -750

+2.07%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -705

+1.95%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

+1.95%

15.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.97%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +345 / U -430

+1.97%

21.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -460

+0.96%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +350 / U --

-5.32%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.82%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 2.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.82%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.32%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-5.32%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.8

Jorge Soler

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.76%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+1.76%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+1.61%

17.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+1.46%

16.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Naylor

SEA vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+1.63%

15.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -690

+1.50%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+1.50%

16.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Logan O'Hoppe

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.60%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

+1.60%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -695

+1.47%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+1.47%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Juan Soto

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -395

+1.50%

22.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -425

+0.35%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-4.56%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Drake Baldwin

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.39%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

+1.39%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+1.26%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

+1.13%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+1.24%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+1.10%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+1.10%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

+1.23%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+1.05%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

+0.87%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+1.12%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.97%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.81%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jorge Polanco

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.11%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

+1.11%

15.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -655

+0.97%

16.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+0.97%

16.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+0.92%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.11%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-4.27%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Francisco Lindor

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -555

+0.92%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+0.73%

19.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +410 / U -520

+0.54%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wilyer Abreu

BOS vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.91%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+0.91%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+0.78%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+0.78%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -560

+0.63%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+0.44%

19.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +410 / U -525

+0.25%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.47%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -605

+0.47%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+0.30%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+0.13%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -685

+0.42%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -645

+0.14%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+0.14%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler O'Neill

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -575

+0.23%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+0.05%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-0.13%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ben Rice

NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -730

+0.14%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

+0.01%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+0.01%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 4.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.14%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.36%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-3.64%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.6

Mark Vientos

NYM vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.04%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -685

+0.04%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -645

-0.24%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.24%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mike Trout

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.04%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -570

-0.04%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-0.22%

19.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-0.41%

18.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.15%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.15%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.15%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.1

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.18%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

-0.18%

18.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-0.54%

18.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-0.54%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -560

-0.24%

18.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -525

-0.61%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-0.61%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -475

-0.40%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-0.86%

21.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +355 / U -445

-1.10%

21.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Wallner

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.52%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -500

-0.52%

19.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +405 / U -535

-1.44%

19.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.81%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ketel Marte

AZ vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +365 / U -450

-0.63%

20.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +375 / U -485

-1.72%

20.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

-2.70%

21.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.90%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.90%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.90%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.90%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7

Royce Lewis

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.98%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-0.98%

15.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-1.11%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-1.11%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-1.15%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-1.98%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-2.20%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Pete Alonso

BAL vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +315 / U -385

-1.19%

23.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +330 / U -415

-1.45%

22.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +320 / U --

-2.00%

23.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Lowe

PIT vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-1.23%

19.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-1.88%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-2.09%

20.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Max Muncy

LAD vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-1.29%

18.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +425 / U -565

-1.89%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-2.07%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jo Adell

LAA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +405 / U -515

-1.43%

19.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +415 / U -550

-1.73%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

-1.92%

19.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.70%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

-1.70%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

-1.82%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

-1.82%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 461

Latest Date 2026-09-05

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-05 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	339 matched 0 unmatched	12 / 68 / 75 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Ezequiel Tovar \| 34.4	-- Signals --
2026-09-04 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	303 matched 0 unmatched	7 / 77 / 41 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bobby Witt Jr. \| 34.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-02 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	276 matched 0 unmatched	18 / 77 / 58 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 53.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	273 matched 0 unmatched	28 / 51 / 81 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-31 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	213 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 74 / 57 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 66 / 93 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jarren Duran \| 50.4	-- Signals --
2026-08-29 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	237 matched 18 unmatched	6 / 44 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Freddie Freeman \| 40.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%