Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-24 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-24
0 activated plays
Gap rows 192
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-25 Older: 2026-08-23

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner

Value Score 24.8
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.63%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.007x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+5.72%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+4.44%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-8.78%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.63%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.52%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.52%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.55%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+5.55%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+4.21%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.77%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.13%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.07%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.07%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.07%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.07%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.98%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.04%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.04%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+5.04%
12.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+5.01%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+5.01%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+5.01%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+4.67%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+4.54%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+4.54%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+4.64%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.57%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.57%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.53%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+4.42%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.42%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+4.49%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.49%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.41%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.47%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.47%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.47%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+4.39%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+4.39%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.31%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+4.39%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+4.23%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.23%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+4.37%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.29%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.29%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+4.15%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
+3.08%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-7.46%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.06%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.97%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.97%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.02%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+3.90%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.90%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+3.87%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+3.70%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+3.66%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.84%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.72%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.72%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.84%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.73%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.68%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+3.58%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+3.47%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.47%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.56%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+3.56%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+2.43%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-6.82%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.41%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.31%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.31%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+3.40%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+3.30%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.30%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+3.21%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+3.09%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.09%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.10%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.10%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.10%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.07%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.07%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.73%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.29%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+3.03%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+2.87%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+2.87%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+3.00%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+2.88%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+2.88%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.97%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.83%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.78%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
+2.80%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
+2.67%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+2.67%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.68%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.56%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.56%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.29%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.17%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.17%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+2.23%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.11%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.11%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+2.04%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.88%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+1.83%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.95%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+1.87%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.87%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.62%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.62%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.58%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.28%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.28%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.35%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+1.35%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+1.23%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+1.23%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.19%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.69%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.69%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.2
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+1.18%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+1.04%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.90%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+1.12%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+1.02%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+1.02%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.81%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.64%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.47%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+0.40%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+0.26%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+0.21%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.29%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.15%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.15%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+0.17%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+0.04%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.04%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.05%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.28%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.51%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.15%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.15%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-0.26%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-0.43%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-0.60%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.37%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.31%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.02%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.38%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.70%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.70%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.39%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.58%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.77%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.41%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.58%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.76%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.56%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.45%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.79%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.61%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.75%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-0.89%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.68%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.84%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-1.00%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.75%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.74%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.54%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.80%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.61%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.62%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.17%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.88%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.12%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.17%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.17%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.17%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.31%
19.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.56%
20.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.73%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.72%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.72%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.72%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.8

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%