Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-23 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-23
0 activated plays
Gap rows 240
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-24 Older: 2026-08-22

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Wyatt Langford

Strong

TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi

Value Score 49.5
Odds / Gap +545 / +8.66%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.212x

Value Rank #2

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 47.2
Odds / Gap +395 / +4.42%
1+ HR 24.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.181x

Value Rank #3

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Play

TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 41.9
Odds / Gap +475 / +5.97%
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.148x

Value Rank #4

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez

Value Score 40.9
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.60%
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.154x

Value Rank #5

George Springer

Play

TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 40.7
Odds / Gap +450 / +5.19%
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.148x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+8.68%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+8.56%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+8.56%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+8.66%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+8.54%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+8.54%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.60%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.60%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.53%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+7.60%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+7.44%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+7.39%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.7
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+7.50%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+7.34%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+7.26%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+6.96%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+6.84%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+6.84%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.88%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.88%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.17%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.70%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+6.78%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+6.78%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+6.78%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+6.74%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+6.74%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+6.74%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+6.50%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+6.38%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+6.38%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+6.42%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+6.34%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.34%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+6.20%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+6.05%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+6.05%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+6.19%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+6.07%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+6.07%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.07%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+6.07%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.99%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+5.97%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+5.82%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+5.66%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.93%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.82%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.82%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.35%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.35%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.26%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+5.33%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+5.33%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+5.33%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+5.19%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+5.02%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+4.85%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.88%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.76%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.76%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+4.79%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+4.65%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+4.50%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.76%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.43%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.43%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+4.68%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+4.59%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+4.59%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+4.61%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.54%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.54%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.46%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.34%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.34%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+4.42%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+4.21%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+4.00%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+4.41%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+4.31%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+4.31%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+4.24%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+3.05%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-7.41%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.24%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+4.11%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+4.11%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.15%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.03%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.03%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.00%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.91%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.91%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.00%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+4.00%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.92%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+3.99%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+3.88%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.88%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+3.80%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+3.67%
9.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+3.58%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+3.77%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+3.59%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+3.54%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.67%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.56%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.51%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+3.66%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.51%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+3.35%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+3.61%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.46%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+3.31%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.57%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.57%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.57%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+3.52%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+3.35%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+3.31%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+3.50%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+3.39%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+3.33%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+3.41%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+3.33%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+3.33%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+3.33%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+3.20%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+3.20%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+2.95%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+2.84%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+2.84%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.94%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.78%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.62%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.72%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.38%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.94%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.43%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.27%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.27%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+2.30%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.15%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.15%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.30%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.18%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.18%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.07%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.06%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.42%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+1.83%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.68%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.68%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.83%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.53%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.53%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+1.79%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+1.61%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+1.42%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
+1.77%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
+1.36%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+1.36%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+1.74%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+1.74%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+1.74%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.58%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.58%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.58%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.23%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.06%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.88%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+1.16%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.70%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.46%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.05%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.55%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.55%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.2
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+1.01%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+0.73%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.73%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+0.88%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+0.76%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+0.76%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.86%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.68%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.50%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.78%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.65%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.65%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.78%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.21%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-4.07%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.32%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
+0.09%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.14%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.23%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.08%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.08%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.14%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.05%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.24%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.14%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.02%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.02%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.8
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+0.11%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.02%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.02%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.05%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-0.08%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.08%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.21%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.24%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.14%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.28%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.64%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.64%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.68%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.67%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.61%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.98%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.40%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.62%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.27%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-1.87%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-2.04%
18.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.32%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.52%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.72%
19.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-1.33%
20.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +375 / U -485
-1.54%
20.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.00%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.37%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.49%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.01%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.44%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.44%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.44%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.4
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.94%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%