Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-07-27
Palantir
11499 props
Brier 0.122
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Fangorn
11499 props
Brier 0.122
ECE 0.010
14d stable
Valinor
5904 props
Brier 0.116
ECE 0.006
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | IN | AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 9.3%market | +3.2pp |
P
13.2
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.0pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6 |
10.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.3pp |
P
11.3
F
15.5
V
10.3
|
5.3pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2 |
12.4%Valinor | 10.1%market | +1.9pp |
P
10.7
F
12.2
V
12.4
|
1.7pp | 1.017xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1 |
10.9%Valinor | 8.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
9.6
F
12.2
V
10.9
|
2.6pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5 |
11.7%Valinor | 9.8%market | +1.5pp |
P
11.8
F
14.9
V
11.7
|
3.2pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 12.4%market | +0.9pp |
P
15.0
F
15.5
V
13.8
|
1.7pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3 |
12.2%Valinor | 11.1%market | +0.7pp |
P
17.4
F
11.6
V
12.2
|
5.8pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5 |
14.5%Valinor | 13.5%market | +0.6pp |
P
13.3
F
12.2
V
14.5
|
2.3pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1 |
14.8%Valinor | 13.9%market | +0.3pp |
P
18.0
F
22.3
V
14.8
|
7.4pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 12.3%market | +0.2pp |
P
11.2
F
12.2
V
12.9
|
1.7pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2 |
13.7%Valinor | 13.1%market | +0.1pp |
P
17.3
F
15.5
V
13.7
|
3.5pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5 |
15.6%Valinor | 15.3%market | -0.2pp |
P
13.7
F
14.9
V
15.6
|
1.9pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.3pp |
P
13.6
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
2.2pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 635 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 13.3%market | -0.4pp |
P
14.4
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.0pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
13.2%Valinor | 13.8%market | -1.1pp |
P
11.9
F
11.4
V
13.2
|
1.8pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4 |
14.4%Valinor | 15.0%market | -1.1pp |
P
15.3
F
15.5
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2 |
16.2%Valinor | 16.8%market | -1.2pp |
P
17.7
F
22.3
V
16.2
|
6.1pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6 |
9.5%Valinor | 10.6%market | -1.5pp |
P
11.0
F
11.6
V
9.5
|
2.1pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 14.0%market | -1.8pp |
P
16.9
F
15.5
V
12.7
|
4.2pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 590 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1 |
13.9%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.0pp |
P
16.6
F
15.5
V
13.9
|
2.7pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Evan Carter
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 6 |
9.0%Valinor | 11.0%market | -2.4pp |
P
17.0
F
17.0
V
9.0
|
8.0pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 775 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6 |
11.7%Valinor | 13.8%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.6
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
3.9pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5 |
12.1%Valinor | 14.3%market | -2.7pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
12.1
|
3.4pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6 |
10.6%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.8pp |
P
12.3
F
9.3
V
10.6
|
3.0pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 14.5%market | -2.9pp |
P
17.6
F
15.5
V
12.2
|
5.4pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 565 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1 |
15.3%Valinor | 17.7%market | -3.1pp |
P
14.7
F
13.4
V
15.3
|
1.9pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4 |
13.3%Valinor | 16.4%market | -3.6pp |
P
16.4
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
3.0pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.0%market | -3.6pp |
P
17.6
F
20.2
V
12.9
|
7.3pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 505 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
9.0%Valinor | 12.7%market | -3.7pp |
P
16.2
F
15.5
V
9.0
|
7.2pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 690 avg 3 books |
| 30 | Lineup pending | CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4 |
8.0%Valinor | 11.7%market | -4.2pp |
P
11.2
F
13.4
V
8.0
|
5.4pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1 |
13.3%Valinor | 17.5%market | -4.9pp |
P
17.6
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
4.3pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1 |
12.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.4pp |
P
6.7
F
7.4
V
12.4
|
5.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1 |
11.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.5pp |
P
7.9
F
9.6
V
11.6
|
3.6pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1 |
10.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.6pp |
P
5.1
F
3.4
V
10.6
|
7.1pp | 1.017xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1 |
10.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.5pp |
P
4.9
F
3.4
V
10.5
|
7.0pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6 |
7.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.2pp |
P
6.9
F
9.6
V
7.8
|
2.7pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 37 | IN | MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3 |
12.7%Valinor | 12.5%market | -0.3pp |
P
10.1
F
12.2
V
12.7
|
2.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1 |
9.3%Valinor | 10.1%market | -1.2pp |
P
10.3
F
12.2
V
9.3
|
2.9pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 850 avg 3 books |
| 39 | IN | AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1 |
16.7%Valinor | 17.9%market | -1.8pp |
P
16.1
F
15.5
V
16.7
|
1.2pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 40 | IN | DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5 |
14.3%Valinor | 16.5%market | -2.8pp |
P
14.2
F
14.9
V
14.3
|
0.7pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 2 |
14.1%Valinor | 16.7%market | -3.1pp |
P
15.1
F
15.5
V
14.1
|
1.4pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4 |
14.8%Valinor | 17.4%market | -3.2pp |
P
15.7
F
15.5
V
14.8
|
0.9pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
IN
|
AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2 |
17.8%Valinor | 20.5%market | -3.5pp |
P
14.7
F
15.5
V
17.8
|
3.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3 |
13.7%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.0pp |
P
12.1
F
14.9
V
13.7
|
2.8pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Riley Greene
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4 |
14.4%Valinor | 18.1%market | -4.3pp |
P
15.4
F
15.5
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 435 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
14.3%Valinor | 18.9%market | -5.3pp |
P
15.5
F
14.9
V
14.3
|
1.1pp | 1.003xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
15.1%Valinor | 20.5%market | -6.2pp |
P
12.7
F
12.2
V
15.1
|
2.9pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4 |
14.1%Valinor | 19.9%market | -6.5pp |
P
15.2
F
14.9
V
14.1
|
1.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3 |
15.0%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.0pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
15.0
|
1.6pp | 1.052xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Jake Burger
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
11.8%Valinor | 18.8%market | -7.7pp |
P
11.3
F
12.2
V
11.8
|
0.9pp | 1.260xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2 |
15.6%Valinor | 22.4%market | -7.7pp |
P
14.8
F
13.4
V
15.6
|
2.2pp | 1.095xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 330 avg 3 books |
Data context
778 sample flagsStatus2381roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.