Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-29 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-29
0 activated plays
Gap rows 255
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-30 Older: 2026-08-28

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Freddie Freeman

Play

LAD vs DET | Keider Montero

Value Score 40.0
Odds / Gap +495 / +6.15%
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.123x

Value Rank #2

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 34.2
Odds / Gap +645 / +7.33%
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.051x

Value Rank #3

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober

Value Score 32.1
Odds / Gap +640 / +7.00%
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.037x

Value Rank #4

Kyle Tucker

Lean

LAD vs DET | Keider Montero

Value Score 29.4
Odds / Gap +430 / +2.94%
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.123x

Value Rank #5

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 27.2
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.97%
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.038x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+7.33%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+7.24%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.24%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+7.00%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+7.00%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.00%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.73%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+6.73%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +655 / U --
+6.73%
13.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+6.71%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+6.60%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+6.60%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+6.55%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+6.39%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+6.39%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.30%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+6.20%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+6.14%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+6.15%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+6.01%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+5.87%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.97%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.86%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.86%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.63%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+5.63%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.55%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.57%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.50%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.50%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+5.49%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+5.38%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+5.32%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.35%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.35%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.26%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+5.18%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.84%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.40%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.03%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.03%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.03%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.92%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.81%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+4.76%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+4.78%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.67%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+4.67%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.69%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.57%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.57%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+4.50%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+4.37%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+4.24%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.36%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 22.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+4.36%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+2.65%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-7.18%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.20%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.07%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.95%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+4.09%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+3.10%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-7.38%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.84%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.72%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.72%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+3.81%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.69%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+3.69%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.76%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.76%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.68%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.61%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+3.61%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+2.33%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-6.67%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.40%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.40%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+3.30%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.35%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.13%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.04%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.04%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.01%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+2.91%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+2.91%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+2.99%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.84%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.84%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+2.94%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+2.76%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+2.58%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.94%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.86%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.86%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+2.62%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+2.51%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+2.51%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+2.50%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+2.50%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.42%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+2.46%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+2.35%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+2.35%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.36%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.22%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.22%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+2.35%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+2.23%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+2.23%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.30%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.22%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.22%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.26%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.17%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.17%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.24%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.24%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.24%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.12%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.62%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 99.5
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+2.10%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.93%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.76%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.03%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+1.92%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+1.92%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+1.95%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+1.83%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+1.83%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.90%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.60%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.60%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+1.87%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+1.72%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+1.72%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+1.73%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.62%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.62%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+1.72%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+1.72%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+1.72%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.72%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.41%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.41%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+1.65%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+1.53%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+1.53%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.51%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.51%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.51%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.6
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.47%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.30%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.26%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.42%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.26%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.10%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+1.39%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+0.26%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.65%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.38%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.25%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.25%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+1.17%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+1.05%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+1.05%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.7
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.96%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.46%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.46%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.89%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.59%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.59%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+0.86%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+0.73%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.73%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.78%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.78%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.78%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
+0.74%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.12%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-4.18%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+0.64%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.48%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+0.32%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.56%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.43%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.58%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.72%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.11%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.92%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.46%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.08%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.88%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.47%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.04%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.04%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.6
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.14%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.27%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.27%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
-0.31%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
-0.45%
16.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
-0.59%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-0.36%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-0.52%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.69%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.38%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.69%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.69%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.40%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.58%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.77%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-0.53%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.72%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-0.91%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.78%
18.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-1.57%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-2.59%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
-0.79%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
-0.94%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.94%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.88%
19.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-1.79%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-2.39%
19.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.89%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.83%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.44%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.48%
19.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.60%
20.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.69%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.55%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.58%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.78%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%