Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-28 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-28
0 activated plays
Gap rows 243
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-29 Older: 2026-08-27

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 36.0
Odds / Gap +710 / +7.89%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.082x

Value Rank #2

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 27.8
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.25%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.992x

Value Rank #3

Taylor Ward

Lean

BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 24.4
Odds / Gap +440 / +2.52%
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.082x

Value Rank #4

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez

Value Score 24.3
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.55%
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.987x

Value Rank #5

Gunnar Henderson

Lean

BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 20.5
Odds / Gap +485 / +3.09%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.082x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +8.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+8.20%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+8.08%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+8.08%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+7.89%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+7.82%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+7.82%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.25%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.25%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.16%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+5.67%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.67%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.67%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.57%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+5.57%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+4.29%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-8.63%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.55%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.44%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.44%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.47%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.41%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.41%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.26%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.19%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.19%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+4.97%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+4.97%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.88%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+4.92%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+4.76%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.76%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.85%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.76%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.76%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+4.80%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.80%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.72%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.77%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.69%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.69%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+4.69%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.61%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.61%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+4.59%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+4.45%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+4.40%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+4.31%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+4.31%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+4.31%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+4.29%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+4.29%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.21%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.08%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+3.96%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.96%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.98%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.87%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.82%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.96%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+3.85%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.85%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.85%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+3.72%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.72%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+3.72%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+3.61%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+3.61%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+3.68%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+3.52%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+3.52%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+3.66%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+3.54%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+3.54%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+3.57%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.42%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+3.37%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.42%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+3.42%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+2.43%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-6.71%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+3.40%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.40%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.40%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.39%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.27%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.27%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.37%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.37%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.29%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+3.36%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.27%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.27%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.32%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+3.32%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.24%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.26%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.14%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.14%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+3.17%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+3.00%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+2.96%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+3.17%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+3.09%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.09%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+3.09%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.79%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.79%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.00%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.66%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.22%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+2.91%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+2.83%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+2.83%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+2.58%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.58%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.58%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.52%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.35%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+2.17%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+2.47%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+1.34%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-5.73%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.28%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.28%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.28%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.08%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.95%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.82%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.04%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.04%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.04%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.01%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.87%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.87%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.98%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.98%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.98%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.88%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.88%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.88%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.73%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.23%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.23%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+1.59%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.43%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+1.38%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.55%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.41%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.41%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.49%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.19%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.19%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.33%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.08%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.38%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+1.27%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+1.17%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+1.17%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+1.25%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+1.13%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+1.13%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.22%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.91%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.91%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.20%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.04%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.04%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.86%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.55%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.55%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.71%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.59%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.59%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+0.66%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.38%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.38%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.57%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.46%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.92%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.53%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.16%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.16%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.49%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.35%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.35%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.43%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.03%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.27%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.21%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.02%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-0.17%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
+0.19%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.01%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.17%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+0.08%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-0.05%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.05%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.01%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.22%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.45%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.07%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.22%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.38%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.08%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.13%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-3.16%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-0.14%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-0.25%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-0.25%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.22%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.22%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.22%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.48%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.64%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.80%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.51%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.64%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.64%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.60%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.76%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.92%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.79%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.10%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.10%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.09%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-2.01%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-2.24%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.15%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.95%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.27%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.18%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.39%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.60%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
-1.26%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-1.38%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-1.93%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.28%
19.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.59%
20.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.70%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.49%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.71%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
-1.79%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-1.60%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.71%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.75%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%