Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-27 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-27
0 activated plays
Gap rows 195
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-07-26

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21 2026-07-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 48.1
Odds / Gap +590 / +9.01%
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.056x

Value Rank #2

Brandon Nimmo

Strong

TEX vs SEA | George Kirby

Value Score 45.1
Odds / Gap +515 / +7.36%
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.260x

Value Rank #3

Julio Rodríguez

Play

SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker

Value Score 43.4
Odds / Gap +460 / +5.82%
1+ HR 23.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.260x

Value Rank #4

Wyatt Langford

Strong

TEX vs SEA | George Kirby

Value Score 41.6
Odds / Gap +570 / +7.85%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.260x

Value Rank #5

Josh Naylor

Play

SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker

Value Score 40.6
Odds / Gap +495 / +6.25%
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.260x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+9.01%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+8.90%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+8.90%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+8.69%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+8.53%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+8.53%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+8.64%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+8.57%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+8.57%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.34%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.34%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.27%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +8.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+8.14%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+8.14%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+8.05%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+8.03%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.92%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+7.87%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.8
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.91%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.91%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.83%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+7.87%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+7.87%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+7.79%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+7.85%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+7.74%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+7.74%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+7.36%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+7.23%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+7.09%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+7.34%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+7.27%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+7.27%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+7.06%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+6.96%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+6.96%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+6.25%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+6.11%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+6.11%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+6.18%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+6.05%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.93%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+6.12%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+6.00%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+6.00%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+6.08%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.08%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.98%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.95%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.86%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.86%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.92%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.86%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.79%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+5.82%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+5.66%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+5.50%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+5.69%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+5.58%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+5.58%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+5.67%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+5.55%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+5.55%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+5.61%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+5.49%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+5.49%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+5.58%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+5.47%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+5.47%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+5.44%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+5.34%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.34%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.12%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+5.12%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.04%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.96%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.96%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.86%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.93%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.84%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.84%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.81%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.71%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.71%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+4.76%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.64%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+4.64%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+4.62%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+4.32%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+4.32%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.60%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.52%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.52%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.47%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.14%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.14%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+4.35%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.19%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.14%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+4.34%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.20%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.15%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.97%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.88%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.88%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.90%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.90%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.90%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+3.82%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+3.74%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.74%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.00%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+2.89%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+2.89%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.53%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.36%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+2.19%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.32%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.21%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.21%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.20%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.04%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.04%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.97%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.97%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.97%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.94%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.75%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.56%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+1.93%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+1.79%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+1.79%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+1.82%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+1.71%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+1.65%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.2
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.55%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.55%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.55%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.49%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.49%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.49%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+1.44%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+1.27%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+1.10%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.26%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.01%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.75%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+1.02%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.87%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.87%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.97%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.83%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.69%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.79%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.61%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.42%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+0.70%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+0.42%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.42%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -395
+0.61%
22.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -425
-0.54%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-3.67%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.50%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.00%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.00%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.6
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.07%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.24%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.24%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.00%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.00%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.00%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
-0.28%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
-1.56%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-2.78%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.38%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.38%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.38%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.77%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.98%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.19%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.81%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.27%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.51%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.03%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.25%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.48%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.03%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.25%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.48%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.13%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.73%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.25%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.30%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.50%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.71%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 421
Latest Date 2026-07-27
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 34 / 57 / 24
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 42 / 82 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 54.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
0 unmatched
 19 / 67 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 44.4
 --
Signals --
2026-07-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 5 / 61 / 72
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 36.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 87 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 25 / 26
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Nick Castellanos | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
24 unmatched
 15 / 61 / 60
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 45.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 231 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 50 / 42
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Andrew Benintendi | 43.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 345 matched
0 unmatched
 46 / 64 / 80
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 46.0
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%