Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-28 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-07-28

0 activated plays

Gap rows 246

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-07-27

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber

Value Score 39.6

Odds / Gap +590 / +7.78%

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.082x

Value Rank #2

Freddie Freeman

Lean

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo

Value Score 23.9

Odds / Gap +495 / +3.82%

1+ HR 20.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.983x

Value Rank #3

James Wood

Lean

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber

Value Score 23.0

Odds / Gap +485 / +3.45%

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.082x

Value Rank #4

Bobby Witt Jr.

Lean

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley

Value Score 22.1

Odds / Gap +470 / +2.97%

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.016x

Value Rank #5

Vinnie Pasquantino

Lean

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley

Value Score 20.7

Odds / Gap +475 / +2.89%

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.016x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.78%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+7.78%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+7.67%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+7.67%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 3

Strong

Best Gap +7.56%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1150

+7.56%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+7.49%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+7.49%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luis García Jr.

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +7.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+7.01%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+7.01%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+6.92%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.71%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +880 / U -1395

+6.71%

9.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+6.60%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +865 / U -1475

+6.55%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.6

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.70%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 20.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+6.70%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+4.99%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-9.52%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.18%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +855 / U -1340

+6.18%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1415

+6.07%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +845 / U --

+6.07%

10.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4

Brandon Marsh

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.10%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1170

+6.10%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +770 / U -1240

+5.97%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +770 / U --

+5.97%

11.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.83%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+5.83%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+5.75%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+5.75%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.53%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+5.53%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+5.39%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+5.34%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Cronenworth

SD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.45%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +905 / U -1450

+5.45%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +890 / U -1535

+5.30%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+5.30%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alec Burleson

STL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.43%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+5.43%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+5.43%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+5.43%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.27%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -895

+5.27%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+5.27%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+5.17%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Horwitz

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.20%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +755 / U -1115

+5.20%

11.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +750 / U -1185

+5.14%

11.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +745 / U --

+5.07%

11.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+5.15%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+5.06%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+5.06%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1485

+5.01%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+4.86%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1570

+4.81%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Trea Turner

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -835

+4.94%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -785

+4.84%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+4.84%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alec Bohm

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.87%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +805 / U -1225

+4.87%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +795 / U -1295

+4.75%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +795 / U --

+4.75%

11.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edouard Julien

COL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1195

+4.44%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +785 / U -1270

+4.38%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +785 / U --

+4.38%

11.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.34%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+4.34%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+4.23%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+4.23%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.07%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+4.07%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+3.95%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+3.95%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.02%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 19.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+4.02%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+2.68%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-7.24%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.82%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+3.82%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+3.68%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -640

+3.54%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcus Semien

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -880

+3.66%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

+3.55%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+3.55%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+3.60%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+3.48%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+3.48%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jackson Merrill

SD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.54%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+3.54%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+3.41%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+3.41%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Bichette

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

+3.52%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +695 / U -1065

+3.52%

12.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

+3.44%

12.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +3.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+3.52%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1085

+3.52%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+3.44%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Colt Keith

DET vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.51%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1260

+3.51%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1335

+3.39%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

+3.39%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Lane Thomas

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.46%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.46%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.46%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.46%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.45%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+3.45%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+3.15%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+3.15%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.30%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.30%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.30%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.30%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1015

+3.23%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1075

+3.23%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+3.15%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

José Tena

WSH vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 11.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+3.22%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+3.22%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+3.22%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.17%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1400

+3.17%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1480

+3.01%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+3.01%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -950

+3.01%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1010

+3.01%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +665 / U --

+2.93%

13.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.5

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.97%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+2.97%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+2.81%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.81%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.89%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.89%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+2.58%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.58%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Juan Soto

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.72%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -395

+2.72%

22.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -425

+1.57%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-5.78%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+2.66%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+2.52%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+2.52%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mookie Betts

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+2.40%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+2.27%

16.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -690

+2.14%

15.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Zach McKinstry

DET vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1715

+2.37%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+2.21%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1810

+2.16%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.6

George Springer

TOR vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.08%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+1.77%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.77%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -670

+1.53%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+1.38%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+1.38%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Victor Scott II

STL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.39%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.39%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.39%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.39%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.3

Bryce Harper

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -550

+1.26%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

+1.07%

19.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -515

+0.88%

19.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+1.09%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.94%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.78%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Salvador Perez

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.00%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

+1.00%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+0.84%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

+0.68%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Adolis García

PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -625

+0.92%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

+0.60%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+0.60%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.73%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

+0.73%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+0.55%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

+0.37%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.51%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+0.51%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.52%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-3.86%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+0.48%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+0.48%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+0.48%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+0.43%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+0.28%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+0.28%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.39%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

+0.39%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

+0.27%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

+0.27%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.2

Brice Turang

MIL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+0.36%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+0.25%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+0.19%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.9

Manny Machado

SD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +435 / U -580

+0.24%

18.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

+0.06%

18.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +425 / U -545

-0.12%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jorge Polanco

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

+0.05%

15.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -655

-0.09%

16.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

-0.09%

16.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -605

-0.08%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-0.25%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

-0.42%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-0.19%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-1.00%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-3.23%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Francisco Lindor

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -555

-0.23%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-0.42%

19.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +410 / U -520

-0.61%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kerry Carpenter

DET vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -495

-0.24%

19.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +400 / U -530

-1.18%

19.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +395 / U --

-3.15%

20.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Riley Greene

DET vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +445 / U -600

-0.29%

17.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +440 / U --

-0.46%

18.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +435 / U -560

-0.63%

18.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.38%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-0.38%

15.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-0.51%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-0.51%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 4.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.40%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.90%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-3.10%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.0

Spencer Torkelson

DET vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.58%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

-0.58%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.72%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -635

-0.86%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.64%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.64%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.64%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.64%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1

Max Muncy

LAD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.81%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-0.81%

18.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +425 / U -565

-1.64%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-2.55%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Wallner

MIN vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -500

-1.09%

19.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +405 / U -535

-2.01%

19.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.24%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mark Vientos

NYM vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -685

-1.10%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -645

-1.38%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-1.38%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-1.29%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-1.84%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-2.06%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Lowe

PIT vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-1.53%

19.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-1.58%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-1.79%

20.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 422

Latest Date 2026-07-28

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-07-28 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	210 matched 36 unmatched	8 / 42 / 63 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 39.6	-- Signals --
2026-07-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	34 / 57 / 24 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	42 / 82 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 54.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 0 unmatched	19 / 67 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 44.4	-- Signals --
2026-07-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	5 / 61 / 72 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 36.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	87 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 25 / 26 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Nick Castellanos \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 24 unmatched	15 / 61 / 60 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 45.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	231 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 50 / 42 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Andrew Benintendi \| 43.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%