Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-03 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-03
0 activated plays
Gap rows 171
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-04 Older: 2026-08-02

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 41.1
Odds / Gap +590 / +8.00%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.046x

Value Rank #2

Luis García Jr.

Strong

WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 32.6
Odds / Gap +675 / +7.24%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.046x

Value Rank #3

Matt Chapman

Play

SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 24.8
Odds / Gap +525 / +4.62%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.104x

Value Rank #4

James Wood

Lean

WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 24.2
Odds / Gap +485 / +3.63%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.046x

Value Rank #5

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Lean

TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier

Value Score 22.6
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.62%
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.098x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+8.00%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+7.89%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+7.89%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+7.72%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+7.65%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.65%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.43%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +240 / U -285
+7.43%
28.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +250 / U -310
+5.85%
27.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +245 / U --
-10.45%
29.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+7.32%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+7.25%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+7.25%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+7.24%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+7.24%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+7.15%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+7.21%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.10%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+7.05%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+6.96%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.89%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.89%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.91%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.91%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.20%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.73%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.78%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+6.70%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.70%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+6.42%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+6.27%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+6.27%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+5.99%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+5.85%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+5.80%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.8
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+5.46%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+5.37%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+5.37%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+4.62%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+4.49%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+4.49%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.62%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.50%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.50%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+4.33%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+4.33%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.33%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.29%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.16%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.04%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.13%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.06%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.06%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.07%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.94%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.94%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.98%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.87%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.87%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+3.73%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+3.59%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+3.54%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.68%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.58%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.58%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.64%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.64%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.64%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+3.63%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+3.33%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+3.33%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+3.62%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.48%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.48%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.60%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.47%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.33%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.42%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+3.42%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+2.43%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-6.71%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.36%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+3.36%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.28%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.35%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.19%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.07%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.07%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.12%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.12%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.12%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.00%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.69%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.69%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.94%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.78%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.62%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.94%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.81%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.81%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.93%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.62%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.62%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.72%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+2.58%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+2.44%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+2.54%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.54%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.54%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+2.49%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+2.36%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+2.36%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+2.28%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+2.07%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+1.85%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+2.10%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.94%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.77%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.10%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.09%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.45%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.06%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.06%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.06%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+2.05%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.90%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.90%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.00%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.00%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.00%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.00%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+1.90%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+1.90%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.94%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.79%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.63%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.39%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.89%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.89%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.4
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.23%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.06%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.89%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.74%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.56%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.38%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs TOR | Shane Bieber | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+0.52%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.31%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.09%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.34%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.18%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.05%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.05%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
+0.10%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.08%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -540
-0.26%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.18%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.54%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.54%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
-0.52%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
-0.69%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.69%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.63%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.57%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.73%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.88%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.77%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.47%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.91%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.96%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.33%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%